UK Economics Focus What is the best way to reduce public sector debt? The easiest way to cut the government debt ratio would be to let economic growth do the work. Yet this could take decades. Cutting it faster would mean running smaller deficits at first, then... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2015: OBR digs Osborne out of a hole This was a much more benign Autumn Statement than most had anticipated. Nonetheless, the big picture is still that austerity will renew in earnest next year – although we think that the economic... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement & Spending Review 2015 Preview Although the Chancellor will use his Autumn Statement on 25th November to soften the blow forhouseholds facing cuts in their tax credits, the big picture will still be that the economy faces a... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Brexit mean for the UK economy? We doubt that the UK’s outlook hinges on the Brexit question. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Union (EU) was a big deal for the UK. We think that the UK economy will do... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Brexit wouldn't spell disaster for UK exports Over the next few weeks, we will be publishing a series of pieces of work looking at the impact that leaving the EU would have on the UK economy, culminating in a presentation at our annual conference... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policymakers choke off the recovery? Over the coming months, the economy will have to absorb both a renewed fiscal tightening and the first rise in interest rates since 2007. But the public sector cuts will now be phased in more... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Reasons to be cheerful Given the ongoing troubles in the euro-zone and fears about a slowdown in China, one could be forgiven for adopting something of a gloomy mood. However, there are plenty of reasons to remain cheerful... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015: Less radical, more pragmatic This was not as radical a Budget as many had feared and some had hoped. It was, as the Chancellor presented it, a “One Nation” Budget. From the macroeconomic viewpoint, the most important aspect was... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015 Preview The Budget on 8th July will be all about providing the details of the second stage of austerity and hopes have been building that Mr Osborne will smooth the profile of the spending cuts. But the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The UK economy after the election While the Conservatives’ victory removed some of the uncertainty hanging over the economy, it has some more worrying implications – such as the renewed fiscal squeeze and the EU referendum. But we... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Election 2015 Preview The economic outlook will not turn on a sixpence after the election. Granted, the election may mark only the start of a period of political uncertainty and, on paper, the differences between Labour’s... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015: Sticking to his guns This was a budget designed to bolster the Government’s reputation for sound economic management and to make Labour’s plans for a looser fiscal stance look irresponsible. In 2015/16, the sum total of... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pension reforms: Ford Fiestas, not Lamborghinis The pension reforms that come into effect next month create the potential for tens of billions of pounds to be transferred out of pension funds and into the wider economy. The actual amount that will... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2015 Preview When the coalition came to power, it envisaged eradicating the black hole in the public finances within five years, paving the way for big handouts by the time of this election. With the job only half... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why are the public finances not already fixed? If the fiscal squeeze had gone to plan, no more austerity would now be needed. The assumption that the recovery would be strong and tax-friendly was misplaced. The next government should be dealt a... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Deflation to have limited impact on pay round With inflation set to turn negative during the busiest time of the year for pay bargaining, the MPC will be on red alert for any signs that deflation is having a knock-on effect on pay deals... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read