UK Economics Focus Households able to spend, but not yet willing A strong labour market, rising real wages and more supportive fiscal policy should mean that households will be in a pretty good position over the next two years, even if interest rates rise. And once... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How are UK markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown? In this Focus, we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Going it alone on monetary and fiscal policy Two of our big non-consensus calls are that in time fiscal policy will become more supportive for the economy than the Chancellor’s current plans suggest and that interest rates will rise a bit more... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will the UK cope with the global slowdown? As long as some form of Brexit deal is agreed this year, then the UK is well placed to shrug off the slowdown in the global economy. In fact, in 2020 the UK may surprise most people by being the... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Response – Hammond splashes the cash As expected, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) gave the Chancellor a helping hand in the Autumn Budget, allowing him to deliver a number of expensive spending pledges, while still managing to... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget Preview – waiting for the Brexit fog to clear The greater-than-expected improvement in the public finances over the past few months, should give the Chancellor a windfall to spend at next week’s Budget. But we suspect that the Chancellor will... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How would the economy weather a no deal Brexit? The impact of a no deal Brexit on the economy would depend on what sort of no deal it was, but there would be at least some negative effect in the short term. If the UK left the EU on bad terms, the... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is austerity nearly over? The worst bit of austerity is behind us, but it is by no means over. There are powerful reasons for taking further action to reduce the public sector debt burden. So we think that the Government will... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Higher oil and food prices won’t prevent inflation falling The rises in energy and agricultural commodity prices and sterling’s recent fall will put some upward pressure on inflation, but we doubt that these factors will prevent it from easing from 2.5% now... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit red lines be rubbed out? With the deadline for finalising the withdrawal agreement and a framework for the UK’s future relationship with the EU fast approaching, many issues are still unresolved – not least the Irish border... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Should we fear a Labour government? Forget Brexit – the biggest thing to happen to the UK economy over the next couple of years could be the advent of a Labour government, and a particularly left-wing one at that. On the plus side, this... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the long-term outlook really so bad? There appears to be a developing consensus that the degree of permanent scarring from the financial crisis is worse than initially thought and that the UK economy has been condemned to the slow lane... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Response – Jam tomorrow While the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) latest forecasts failed to deliver the expected “growth windfall”, the Chancellor still managed to maintain an upbeat tone in the Spring Statement... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Preview – Banking the growth windfall Things seem to be going the Chancellor’s way at the moment (for a change). Not only did GDP grow more strongly in 2017 than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted, and the public... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much longer will the consumer squeeze last? 2017 was a fairly dismal year for consumers. With prices rising more quickly than wages, consumer spending growth has halved since 2016. But is the worst of the squeeze now behind us, or is there... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit uncertainty finally bite in 2018? A key reason why most forecasters were too gloomy about the UK economy last year was that Brexit-related uncertainty was much less damaging than they had expected. Judging by the gloominess of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read