UK Economic Outlook A protracted peak A slower fall in core inflation than in the US or the euro-zone will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold at the probable peak of 5.50% for longer than the US Fed or the ECB. But... 18th September 2023 · 19 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Stagflation nation As the UK’s recent problem of higher inflation and slower economic growth than elsewhere is largely due to the lingering effects of the pandemic and Brexit, we think the UK will probably look like the... 19th June 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recession needed to solve the inflation problem While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook High inflation and interest rates to hit economy hard The drag on the economy from CPI inflation being stuck at 10% for a year and interest rates rising to 5.00% will be enough to trigger a recession that involves real GDP declining by around 2.0% from... 20th October 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Soaring inflation to trigger a recession A rise in CPI inflation from the 40-year high of 9.1% in May to a peak of 12% or higher in October will reduce real incomes by enough to mean that a recession now seems inevitable. Our forecast that... 18th July 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Rates to rise to 3.00% to rein in price expectations Even though a further surge in CPI inflation to a 40-year high of 10% in October will take the economy to the brink of recession, we think the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 0.75% now... 26th April 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More inflation, more interest rate hikes Although the hit to households’ real incomes from a bigger surge in CPI inflation than most expect (to a peak of almost 7% in April) explains why we think GDP growth will be slower this year than the... 17th January 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economics A taste of stagflation The UK economy is experiencing a taste of stagflation. This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s. But for the next six months, the worsening product and labour shortages... 19th October 2021 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Surge in inflation won’t be sustained Our forecast that COVID-19 won’t significantly reduce potential supply means that the economy can run a bit hotter for longer without generating the persistent rise in inflation that would require... 20th July 2021 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Rapid recovery to limit scarring While we think the reopening of the economy and the vaccine rollout will allow GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level a bit earlier than most forecasters, the big difference between us and the... 15th April 2021 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A faster and fuller recovery within sight Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It... 19th January 2021 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery put on ice The new COVID-19 restrictions will put the economic recovery on ice for the next few months and will prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. The... 13th October 2020 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery put on ice The new COVID-19 restrictions will put the economic recovery on ice for the next few months and will prevent the economy from climbing back to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022. The... 13th October 2020 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Lagging behind in the recovery race The combination of a large share of the UK’s GDP being generated by the sectors that are hampered the most by social distancing and the drag from the uncertainty caused by Brexit means the UK economy... 20th July 2020 · 26 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Economy will struggle to get back to full health We think it will take the economy a few years to recover from an unprecedented hit to GDP of around 25% triggered by the lockdown implemented to contain the coronavirus. That’s because despite the... 16th April 2020 · 22 mins read
