US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2021) The NCREIF index recorded a huge 5.2% quarterly return in Q3 thanks to further improvement in all sectors. With no sign of any let-up in investment demand, that puts annual returns on course to exceed... 26th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property valuations stabilise in Q2 Following a sharp deterioration in the previous quarter, property valuations held steady in Q2. But while changes so far in Q3 point to only a slight worsening in valuations, we expect Treasury yields... 23rd August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2021) All-property total returns strengthened again in Q2, reflecting improvement in all sectors. Industrial returns set a new quarterly record for the sector, while office and retail returns were again... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Lower Treasury yield forecasts support property pricing We have pulled back our expectations for Treasury yield rises this year and, to a lesser extent, next year. At the margin, this is positive for real estate pricing as it means that the property to... 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Rising Treasury yields to squeeze valuations further Following a sharp increase in Treasury yields, property valuations worsened for the second consecutive quarter in Q1. And we expect 10-Yr Treasury yields to resume their upward trend to reach 2.25% by... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1 2021) All-property total returns rose again in Q1, driven by improvements in all sectors, although retail and hotel returns were again negative. But the industrial sector boom continued, with six-month... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Property valuations look solid despite rising bond yields A few weeks ago, we nudged up our Treasury yield forecasts for year-end 2021 and 2022, to 1.5% and 1.75% respectively. While intra-day yields exceeded 1.6% at one point last week, we don’t expect a... 4th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The long view of property In light of our latest long-term economic and financial market forecasts, we have revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next three decades. We think that average returns... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Rising Treasury yields squeezing property valuations On the back of rising Treasury yields, property valuations took their first hit in eight quarters during Q4. And, with Treasury yields climbing higher since, it is likely that valuation scores will... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2020) All-property total returns strengthened in Q4, broadly as we had expected. And the data continued to point to the importance of sector selection to returns. Perhaps the real surprise was that NCREIF... 26th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Structural changes will keep office and retail in the doldrums While the news of vaccines provides a fillip to our economic outlook, it does not have a major bearing on our occupier market forecasts. After all, we expect that structural change, rather than... 11th December 2020 · 23 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2020) All-property total returns moved positive again this quarter, as valuation downgrades reduced markedly. A lack of forced sellers has limited transaction activity and reduced observable evidence, which... 27th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations need to improve further to entice investors Property valuations improved substantially in Q2, on the back of a huge 120 bps drop in equities earnings yields. However, while the office, retail and apartment sectors look undervalued on our... 20th August 2020 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2020) As expected, all-property total returns turned negative in Q2, led lower by sharp markdowns in the retail and hotel sectors. And, while rental values and capital values fell in all sectors last... 27th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Short, sharp, downturn will prevent major LTV breaches Debt covenants generally look less stretched in this downturn than during the GFC. And, although interest cover ratios are relatively low in some REIT sub-sectors, the short, sharp, fall in capital... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1) Data for the first quarter show that all-property total returns saw their weakest quarterly performance since the tail-end of the GFC. Given that occupier market conditions have since deteriorated and... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
