US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Oct.) Total employment grew across the 30 metros, but at a slower pace as labour market conditions continued to ease. With our proprietary indicators pointing to a 90% probability of an imminent recession... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Downturn starting to weigh on West Coast markets Third quarter data showed growing evidence of a softening in tenant demand in many metros. In particular, demand appears to be slowing in a number of West Coast markets, as hybrid and remote work... 29th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian prime office rents to fall next year The sharp fall in employment we expect next year will drag on Italian office rents. While prime rents should hold up better than the wider market as the shift to the best quality space continues, we... 29th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Recession to hit rental growth as yields rise The surge in interest rates in recent months has quickly been reflected in property yields, and as a result we have brought forward some of our forecasted rise in yields from 2023 into 2022. But with... 28th November 2022 · 28 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus view of 2023 office rents is too optimistic The latest IPF Consensus survey showed a significant upgrade to 2022 European office rent growth expectations, largely due to strong rent outturns in Q2 and Q3 this year. A slowdown is expected in... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Capital values fall in most of CEE Property yield rises stepped up in Q3, causing all-property capital values to fall on a quarterly basis in the CEE markets except for Bucharest. This was despite solid office and industrial rental... 23rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls set to accelerate The sharp rise in Treasury yields this year has finally begun to feed through to the property data. Q3 investment activity fell by more than 20% on both a q/q and y/y basis, with loan originations... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Property yields jump Prime property yields rose significantly in Q3. This caused a sharp slowdown in capital value growth, even though rental growth was solid in the Scandinavian office and industrial sectors. Stockholm... 22nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Sharpest fall in all-property values since 2009 Q1 Higher interest rates and a weaker outlook for economic activity led to a more significant rise in property yields in Q3. While quarterly rental rises remained solid, particularly for offices and... 18th November 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rising vacancy will cut London office rents Even as Central London office vacancy rates rose to a 12-year peak in Q3, annual rental growth ticked-up to three-year high. That marks a reversal from the situation prior to COVID-19, when a tight... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Barcelona prime offices to underperform Madrid Spanish office rental values are expected to be harder hit than the euro-zone average as the looming recession weighs on occupier demand and higher interest rates push up yields. However, at a market... 9th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) Employment continues to trend higher across the 30 metros, but nearly half remain short of pre-pandemic peaks, including all six major metros. Indeed, with job growth slowing, we don't expect... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does recession mean for German prime offices? German prime office rental growth is expected to slow sharply next year as the economy experiences the deepest recession in the euro-zone. Even so, we don’t expect rental growth to underperform as the... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Helsinki office vacancy to edge higher Helsinki office vacancy jumped in Q3 and is likely to trend higher over the next couple of years as occupier demand weakens, completions rise and there are fewer office-to-residential conversions. As... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Offices see biggest fall in our rental downgrade With interest rates now higher, we have made downgrades to our forecast for UK GDP growth. We expect that this will bring a sharper deceleration in rental growth at the all-property level, with falls... 17th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural change and higher rates still key to sector returns The weaker economic growth outlook will weigh most heavily on the retail and apartment sectors, where we have made the largest downgrades to our rental growth forecasts. But the relatively small size... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
