Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export performance remains dire Although EM exports contracted less sharply in February, the improvement was almost entirely down to a surge in China’s exports, which have been distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) February’s euro-zone trade data suggest that the weakness of the euro is still only providing a small boost to the region’s exports. 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity import volumes bounce back in March China’s commodity import volumes rose in March, admittedly from a low base in February. However, lower prices appear to be encouraging purchases and we expect volumes to remain higher in Q2. 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) We suspect that the slump in China’s exports last month was the result of seasonal disruption to output rather than weakness in demand. On the import side, the headline figures still look awful, but... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government’s export targets are unlikely to be met The government’s ambitious plans to almost double exports by 2020 from current levels are no bad thing, but in truth the targets look unrealistic. Reforms that would significantly boost export... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Most of Emerging Asia set for faster growth Most economies in Emerging Asia are likely to record decent growth over the next couple of years. However, with the pace of expansion in the region’s biggest economy, China, set to ease further in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s Sunday trading ban symbolic of reform backsliding The decision taken by the Hungarian government to ban Sunday trading is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy at an aggregate level. But as we explain in this Watch, it may lead to a shift in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Feb.) February’s trade deficit came in worse than expected and will re-ignite fears that the strong pound and weakness in demand in the euro-zone is acting as a straightjacket on exporters. However, there... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Feb.) German industrial production and trade data for February offered tentative signs that the economy is benefitting from the weaker exchange rate. But the data seem to confirm that growth slowed in Q1... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery prospects clouded by Greece Recent indicators have brought signs of a renewed recovery in the euro-zone economy, reflecting the beneficial effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro exchange rate. But the picture... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth to recover after weak Q1 For a second successive year, global GDP growth dropped sharply in Q1 due to a slowdown in the US and China. But business surveys, which may be a better gauge of the underlying health of the economy... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Feb.) The current account surplus dropped in February, but should remain broadly stable going forward as a higher oil import bill should be offset by rising investment income. 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers still have plenty of ammunition Growth looks likely to have slowed sharply in Q1, in spite of recent cuts to the required reserve ratio and benchmark interest rates. This has raised concerns that policymakers are now struggling to... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) The decline in Canada's trade deficit to C$1.0bn in February, from an upwardly revised C$1.5bn, reflected an improvement in the terms of trade. Export and import volumes both fell, supporting our view... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Current account cloud casting shadow over recovery Last week’s National Accounts showed that the economic recovery had plenty of wind in its sails in the fourth quarter. However, there remains one cloud hanging over the recovery which has yet to be... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The sharp declines in both imports and exports in February suggest that the West Coast port dispute had a bigger impact than we had anticipated. Exports fell by 1.6% m/m in February, while imports... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
