Commodities Outlook Record-high metals prices to fall back in 2026 The outlook for oil is dominated by an abundance of supply, which will continue to weigh on prices over our forecast horizon. Meanwhile, although structural demand factors will keep gold and silver... 15th December 2025 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to fall below 2% soon Euro-zone inflation has hovered close to or above the 2% target for over a year, but we think it will fall to about 1.5% in January and average just 1.3% in 2026. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Plenty of oil on water; revising down our gold forecast While the fallout from US sanctions on Russian oil majors has yet to manifest in the data, Russian seaborne oil exports are strong, and a wider... 5th November 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily ‘Au’ revoir, gold We doubt the recent pull-back in the price of gold will be unwound. Indeed, our new forecast is that the price will fall to $3,500/oz. by the end of 2026. 27th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Blowing the full-time whistle on the gold rally The latest leg of the gold rally looks like a market bubble that is in its final stages. So unlike some analysts, we are revising our forecasts lower and now expect prices to fall to $3,500 per ounce... 27th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Market scepticism over fresh sanctions on Russian oil While the threat of fresh US sanctions on Russian oil producers drove crude prices up by ~8% this week, market participants appear to be treating the risk with a degree of scepticism. That leaves the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fool's gold? The price of gold has arguably risen so far above ‘fair’ value that it might come crashing down soon. 20th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil glut is set to come onshore; precious metals still rallying The rapid build-up in oil stocks on water suggests that the full impact of previous OPEC+ output increases is yet to be felt and an oil glut may materialise in the coming months. Given that OPEC+ will... 17th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gold rally flatters Turkey’s FX reserves The gold price rally has inflated the Turkish central bank’s foreign assets by $30bn this year, strengthening Turkey’s external position but creating an illusion of progress in the rebalancing process... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) OPEC+ undershoots, copper goes for gold OPEC+’s decision to raise its output quota by 137,000 bpd in November confounded reports of a larger rise in the run-up to the decision and provided short-lived... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold hits $4,000: where to from here? Given that “FOMO” appears to be creeping into the gold market, it has become even harder to objectively value gold. In our view, gold prices seem likely to grind higher in nominal terms over the next... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Gold prices to buck the downbeat trend The most acute geopolitical and tariff-related distortion in commodity markets has eased, leaving fundamentals more firmly in the driver’s seat going forward. While the Russia-Ukraine war still... 24th September 2025 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fed rate cuts won’t be a major influence on commodity prices From a commodity market perspective, the fact that the US Fed is now cutting rates again would usually, all else equal, be expected to boost prices. However, weak market fundamentals and the extent of... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Upside risks a distraction from bearish oil market fundamentals The news flow and price reaction in the oil market this week, with oil prices rising in the first half of the week as a result of geopolitical risks and falling later on following the assessment of... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Commodities Drop-In: Gold at record highs, oil under pressure, OPEC in question 17th September 2025, 3:00PM BST Gold prices continue to set record highs, oil remains under downward pressure, and OPEC+ is facing renewed questions about its long-term cohesion.
