Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Mar.) & Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Today’s weaker Turkish inflation reading and soft manufacturing PMI (which provided the first signs of a slowdown in the real economy) has reduced the likelihood that the MPC will tighten monetary... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in March, following the trend across most of Asia. But we doubt this marks the start of a sharp downturn. In fact, over the near term at least, prospects for local... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in March, together with the weaker incoming activity data, will add to worries that the economy is slowing. But the index is still at a level... 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Emerging Asia’s PMIs for March suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors ended last quarter on a softer note. Focussing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, Taiwan’s... 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The unofficial PMI declined last month even as the official index rose. This suggests that while the recent easing of pollution controls has led to a rebound in heavy industry, broader economic... 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that growth slowed last quarter. Nonetheless, staff shortages have continued to intensify and price pressures are strengthening. 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Tokyo CPI (Mar.) The rebound in industrial production in February wasn’t strong enough to prevent a slump in output last quarter and we reiterate our forecast that GDP shrank in Q1. Meanwhile, the labour market... 30th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour data point to slower consumption growth The incoming labour market data provide further evidence of a potential household-led slowdown in economic growth this quarter. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada won’t risk increasing... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the global economy really slowing? The recent weakness of some economic data, business surveys and equity markets has raised fears that the global expansion is now fizzling out. We think that China will slow later this year and the US... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers relying on saving less The news on the state of households’ finances shows that recent spending growth has been partly driven by households saving less. But it should not be long before consumer spending is on a firmer... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly First-quarter slowdown all about consumption The incoming activity data suggest that GDP growth slowed from an upwardly-revised 2.9% annualised in the fourth quarter to 2.0% or so in the first quarter. That would still be slightly above the... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The decline in monthly GDP in January was partly due to interruptions in the oil & gas industry and the recent slump in home sales, something which we fear could mark the start of a potentially... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Q4 Quarterly National Accounts & Money and Credit Q4’s Quarterly National Accounts confirmed that growth in 2017 was broadly unchanged from 2016, and painted a more balanced growth picture for the final quarter. Meanwhile, the latest money and credit... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2017) Today’s GDP figures from Turkey showed that growth was a faster-than-expected 7.3% y/y in Q4 of last year. Coming alongside high inflation, this will heighten fears that the economy is overheating. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q1) The very strong performance of Vietnam’s economy in the first quarter of the year raises further doubts about the reliability of the country’s economic statistics. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The muted increase in retail sales in February leaves Q1 on track for the sharpest fall since 2014’s sales tax hike. However, the figures haven’t been a great guide to developments in private... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
