UK Economics Focus How will the UK cope with the global slowdown? As long as some form of Brexit deal is agreed this year, then the UK is well placed to shrug off the slowdown in the global economy. In fact, in 2020 the UK may surprise most people by being the... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Construction props up activity, but headwinds remain Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged up in December driven by strong construction activity. But with credit now growing at the slowest pace in more than a decade and the impact of... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Support for first-time home buyers may come too late A renewed increase in public support for first-time home buyers would probably result in a rebound in home sales and house prices. But with federal elections due by May, any step-up in government... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slightly more dovish ECB not a game-changer The turn towards a slightly more dovish tone by the ECB at its meeting on Thursday will have made policymakers at the SNB and the Riksbank even more hesitant to hike rates anytime soon. Next week, we... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slowdown intensifies, ECB slightly dovish The latest batch of business surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy may be stalling rather than just slowing. We think the ECB will tweak its forward guidance in March, and will at least consider... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak November a sign of things to come At Davos this week, Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated that the Bank of Canada will remain data dependent with respect to the pace of future interest rate hikes. With GDP set to have contracted in... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) The batch of Russian activity data for December suggests that the economy weakened at the end of last year. Even so, GDP growth over Q4 as a whole was probably a little stronger than it was in Q3... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown worsens, nervous MPCs A raft of weak activity and survey data released this week reinforces our relatively downbeat view on the outlook for growth across Emerging Europe this year. Slowing growth seems to be worrying some... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peace in Mindanao and a less hawkish Fed Peace in the restive southern province of Mindanao, the second biggest island in the Philippines, could lead to big economic gains for the island itself, but is unlikely to have much impact on overall... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya debt increases fragilities, SA inflation supports dovish view Given Kenya’s fragile external position, plans for more foreign currency debt will increase the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks. Policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria showed no sign... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s further fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index supports other evidence that economic growth in Germany has stalled. 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly IMF too optimistic, Goyal won’t alter the budget The IMF released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Fund is forecasting seems... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Middle-income squeeze weighing on consumption On paper, China’s rebalancing is going swimmingly, with the consumption share of GDP growth jumping last year to its highest level in almost two decades. But this is hard to square with broader data... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit clouds the outlook for consumers The slump in retail sales volumes in December is not too worrying given that it seems to have largely reflected consumers bringing forward Christmas purchases in order to take advantage of ‘Black... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Growth will pick up, despite faltering Nigeria After a very weak 2018, we expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen this year. The major oil exporters will, of course, suffer the effects of lower oil prices and our growth forecasts... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown has further to run We have long thought that the world economy would slow significantly in 2019, but the Flash PMIs for January provide an early sign that growth may be deteriorating more quickly than even we had... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
