Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) November’s sharp fall in manufacturing sales partly reflected some temporary disruption, so sales probably rebounded in December. Nevertheless, echoing the weakness seen in many other countries, the... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Fresh slowdown on the cards The region’s recovery is set to falter in 2019 and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Low oil prices shouldn’t cause major balance sheet strains in the Gulf, but tighter fiscal policy and... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has EM exposure to a China slowdown fallen? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook World poised for slowest growth in a decade Global growth looks set to fall to its weakest pace since the financial crisis as slowdowns in the euro-zone and China continue and the US soon joins the mix. Against that backdrop, fears of a surge... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who is most at risk from a sharp slowdown in China? Weaker growth in China is already weighing on exports from the rest of Asia, and a further slowdown in the economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of the region. A slump... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) A soft batch of December activity data suggests that GDP growth slowed a touch at the end of last year. Over 2018 as a whole, it appears that the Polish economy grew by a robust 5%, but the slowdown... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector weakens as consumers hold back The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data released today points toward softer service sector activity last quarter on the back of slower property sales and weaker consumer spending. We expect... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus This time won’t be different We believe that the downturn in Australia’s housing market will become by far the deepest and longest on record. By curbing dwellings investment, consumption and bank lending, we think it will result... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4) Economic growth in Korea was surprisingly strong last quarter, but with both domestic and external headwinds to growth likely to mount this year, we doubt this strength will last. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten very slowly We expect GDP growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics to slow this year and next. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued and central banks look set to raise interest rates... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) Growth edged down last quarter, with the slowdown on the official GDP figures corroborated by other data. Conditions improved somewhat in December, but we expect the uptick in industrial output and... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-gloom, Brexit fears and Greek politics This week saw more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, the UK parliament rejected the EU Withdrawal Agreement, once again raising the spectre of a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households upbeat, but still price sensitive Japanese households are more positive about current economic conditions than they have been for many years but they report still being highly price sensitive, and their worries about the outlook have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A broad-based slowdown EM GDP growth has started to slow and will be weaker than most expect in the coming quarters. Domestic strains are growing following previous policy tightening and external headwinds are building... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 1.1% surge in manufacturing output in December, which admittedly was boosted by some temporary factors, suggests that US is not (yet) succumbing to the global industrial slowdown. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
