Asia Economics Weekly Better news on inflation, as growth disappoints The recent national accounts data show most countries experienced a difficult second quarter. However, there was some more encouraging news on inflation – which already appears to have peaked in a few... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Jun. & Q2) The 0.6% m/m drop in GDP in June was mostly due to the adverse effect of the extra Jubilee bank holiday. Even so, the GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in Q2 as a whole and... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) Turkey’s activity figures for June painted a mixed picture, with industrial production continuing to post solid growth but retail sales suffering a fresh knock. The bigger picture, however, is that... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The decline in CPIF inflation in July will be of limited comfort to policymakers given that the core rate, excluding energy, jumped to 6.6%. We still think the Riksbank may raise its repo rate by a... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Demographic woes persist, tourists waiting at the gate An exodus of long-term migrants contributed to the 0.6% fall in Japan’s population last year but with border controls loosened since March net migration is bouncing back strongly. Even so, we still... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to slow pace of tightening from October The latest survey data suggest that inflation will continue to accelerate over coming months and we expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver another 50bp rate hike next month. But with food... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Malaysia edged down in q/q terms last quarter, and we expect a further slowdown over the coming quarters as commodity prices drop back and the boost from reopening fades. 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is there really such thing as a ‘jobful’ recession? While history shows that recessions can begin even while employment is still rising, the current rate of payroll employment growth is far too strong to be consistent with an economic downturn. By the... 11th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted sluggish growth of just 0.1% m/m in June and the data suggest that the first estimate of Q2 GDP growth may be revised down. The backdrop of weakness in the US means... 11th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank has further to go The Norges Bank said in June that it was likely to raise its policy rate by 25bp at its meeting next week, but we now think it is more likely to go for a 50bp hike. Whatever it decides on interest... 11th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Why we expect a euro-zone recession We think the euro-zone will soon fall into recession as high inflation, tighter monetary policy and weak global growth take their toll. While the economy should recover next year, the rebound will be... 11th August 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Update What will this recession look like? We expect a recession in 2022/23 to be driven by high inflation, with a contraction in real consumer spending at its epicentre. But with household and corporate balance sheets still relatively healthy... 11th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in delinquencies not a major threat The rise in new delinquencies on consumer loans over the first half of the year mostly reflects rising interest costs. With debt levels low, real incomes on track to begin rising again amid a drop... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Increased risk of “second-round” effects We’ve been warning for some time that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect, triggering a recession. The prospect of even bigger rises in utility prices on 1 st October and in the... 10th August 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of the fall in participation With most workers who left during the pandemic mostly returned to the labour force by early 2022, it is little surprise that growth of the labour force has slowed. But the decline in the participation... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU & the rule of law dispute: why do EU funds matter? EU funds will provide a key boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years as the region navigates a challenging macro environment and slowing global growth. Disputes with the... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
