US Economics Update Recession Watch (Dec.) Our composite models continue to suggest that a recession this year is a near-certainty, with the implied odds of the economy being in recession in six months’ time and in one year’s time both above... 5th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year low of 48.4 in December, from 49.0, is another sign that the economy lost more momentum at the tail-end of last year. Nearly all the... 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does China’s end of zero-COVID mean for EMs? China’s abandonment of its zero-COVID policy could lead to supply chain disruption in other EMs, particularly other parts of Asia and Mexico, though we’re not too concerned yet. And outbound Chinese... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Post-Christmas catch-up: The global state of play Developments of the past two weeks reinforce the message that the world economy is headed for recession and disinflation in 2023. With the full effects of policy tightening yet to be felt, and re... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response PMIs (Dec.) December’s PMIs suggest that non-oil sectors across the Gulf lost some steam at the end of 2022, with the worsening global backdrop weighing particularly heavily on the UAE. Elsewhere, there were... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) December’s final PMIs suggest the euro-zone economy held up better than we expected in Q4, but are still consistent with a mild recession. They also suggest price pressures remain very high. 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Three years on It is three years since a cluster of cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan. Chart 1 maps economic developments in China since then. The blue bars show cumulative growth since... 4th January 2023 · 12 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Dec.) India’s manufacturing and services PMI readings rose to multi-month highs in December but are at odds with the hard activity data that point to a slowdown in domestic and external demand. 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: ends 2022 on a weak footing Although the manufacturing PMIs for December picked up in some highly-open EMs in Asia and Central Europe, industry in these countries remains very weak. And the surveys suggest that activity has... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (Dec.) Manufacturing PMIs across the region rose slightly in December but remained weak overall. We continue to expect weaker global demand, high inflation and interest rates to drag on manufacturing ahead. 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4, flash estimate) Growth slowed sharply in the first two months of Q4 and we expect a further slowdown over the coming months as high inflation, multi-decade high interest rates and weaker global demand weigh on... 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Dec.) The latest surveys suggest that the reopening wave delivered another blow to the economy in December. Services activity looks to have slumped. Industry was not spared, although the hit appears more... 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The modest gain in GDP in October and upward revision to activity in previous months suggest the economy was coping well with higher interest rates at the start of the fourth quarter, but the... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reflecting on 2022 and looking ahead to 2023 This year has been was a surprisingly positive one for Latin America – growth has exceeded even our once above consensus expectations and has surpassed most other EM regions. But the opposite is... 23rd December 2022 · 5 mins read
