Global Economics Update PMIs: Only a small Omicron hit to industry so far While there is still time for Omicron waves to hit global supply chains, the manufacturing PMIs suggest that there has been limited disruption for now, especially outside China and the US. That said... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Outlook Prices to remain volatile for now, before falling back Energy prices will remain volatile for the next few months, but should fall back later this year as demand drops back and supply picks up. That said, the shortfall of supply over the last year or so... 1st February 2022 · 20 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The small fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.6 in January, from 58.8, suggests the Omicron virus wave hasn’t had nearly as big an impact on the factory sector as implied by some of the early... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The US and euro-zone: different crises, different outlooks The Q4 GDP data released over the past week underline the fact that the two largest developed markets – the US and euro-zone – have so far experienced very different crises and recoveries. These... 1st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The stronger-than-expected rise in November means that GDP climbed back above its pre-pandemic level, but activity appears to have stagnated in December and November’s gain was likely reversed in... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month from the slump in activity on the back of the Omicron wave, but headwinds facing the sector and the wider economy will keep the recovery subdued. 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4 2021) & Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The strong 0.9% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q4 is consistent with data showing a recovery in industry and we think this is likely to continue this year. Meanwhile, more timely manufacturing PMIs for... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The continued resilience of the manufacturing PMIs in Switzerland and Sweden in January indicates that industry will have supported activity through a restrictions-driven soft patch for services in... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron waves in the rear view mirror Waves of the Omicron variant that spread across the region in December have subsided sharply in recent weeks. And timely survey and mobility data point to a smaller hit from these latest waves... 31st January 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4 Prov.) The 0.1% q/q fall in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 confirmed that the economy slipped into a recession over the second half of 2021, and we think growth this year will be weaker than most expect. Despite the... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Equities adjusting to the end of ultra-low real yields It is possible that equity prices will continue to struggle in the near term if central banks send more signals that they are willing to raise interest rates further in order to control inflation. But... 31st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2021) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 came as no surprise given the country-level data published last week and shows that the euro-zone economy was struggling at the end of last year. But... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack A less subdued Lunar New Year Millions of people traditionally travel across China to spend this evening, the eve of Lunar New Year, with their families. The tradition has been severely disrupted by the pandemic. Last year, amid a... 31st January 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Update Weaker China sets stage for fall in commodity prices The latest PMI data out of China suggest that demand for commodities softened again in January. And with Chinese demand unlikely to bounce back meaningfully this year, we continue to expect sharp... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2021) The larger-than-expected 5.7% increase in Polish GDP over 2021 as a whole is consistent with another large expansion in Q4 and meant that the economy recovered faster than most other European... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jan.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of economic growth slowed in January due to a combination of weaker foreign demand, cooling property activity and efforts to contain recent outbreaks. We think... 31st January 2022 · 4 mins read
