Event UK Drop-In: What will follow the Bank of England’s “forceful” hike? 2nd November 2022, 3:00PM GMT Economists from our UK Economics team held a briefing ahead of the MPC’s November meeting to discuss why we think that rates will rise further than most analysts are expecting and the conditions that…
Asia Chart Pack Policymakers increase currency support Central banks across the region have been stepping up the pace of intervention in foreign exchange markets to support their currencies, resulting in a drop in FX reserves. In most countries, reserves... 31st October 2022 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Here comes the slowdown The past month has brought further signs that economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are in the midst of a slowdown. The latest activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after GDP contracted in Q2... 31st October 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Prov.) Provisional GDP figures show that Mexico’s economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q in Q3, but a recession in the US alongside tight fiscal and monetary policy mean that the economy will... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & Flash HICP (October) The increase in euro-zone GDP in Q3 does not alter our view that the euro-zone is on the cusp of a recession. But with inflation having jumped to well over 10%, the ECB will prioritise price stability... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted last quarter due to a sharp decline in exports. While the ongoing easing of virus-related restrictions should continue to support a recovery in retail spending... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s economy posted a strong 2.6% q/q expansion in Q3, driven in large part by rising oil output. The subsequent OPEC+ cuts mean that that boost will fade over the coming quarters and we... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Oct.) The official PMIs point to a further loss of momentum this month as virus disruptions worsened and export orders remained under pressure. With the zero-COVID policy here to stay, we think the economy... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep. 22) Industrial production declined in September whereas retail sales values saw another relatively strong rise. We are expecting a strong fourth quarter for retail sales, but industrial output looks set... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep. 22) 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Faltering economy will contribute to Fed pivot The 2.6% annualised rise in third quarter GDP was a lot worse than it looked, with growth in underlying demand grinding to a near-halt. At the same time, there are mounting signs that economic... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still a long way from a pivot This week’s data releases have done nothing to change our key calls on the euro-zone economy: that it is heading for a deeper recession and higher inflation than most expect, and that the ECB will be... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) GDP performed better than expected last quarter but, with the business surveys weakening significantly, growth is likely to slow to a crawl this quarter and we expect a mild recession in 2023. 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s behind Brazil’s productivity problem? Brazil’s economy has a deep-seated problem of low productivity growth and it’s hard to see either presidential candidate undertaking the reforms needed to lift investment, strengthen competitive... 28th October 2022 · 17 mins read
