Asia Chart Pack How will central banks respond to the latest currency falls? Asian currencies have dropped back over the past few weeks against the US dollar, with the two worst hit currencies (the Thai baht and the Korean won) down around 6% against the greenback since the... 27th February 2023 · 15 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Feb.) The stabilisation of the EC’s economic sentiment indicator in February contrasts with the significant increases in the PMIs and provides some support for our view that the economy will struggle this... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators continued to rebound across Central and Eastern Europe in February, with our regional weighted measure hitting an eight-month high. It is broadly consistent with... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data point to recession The effects of tighter monetary policy are clear in the money and credit data. Households and firms have continued to lock their money up in longer-term deposits which are less likely to be spent, and... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan. 23) 28th February 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Politics and the public finances Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, are both facing slow-burning debt problems. In Nigeria at least, elections on Saturday offer an opportunity to shift towards... 24th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s economy one year on, Israel’s judicial reform Russia's war in Ukraine marks its one year anniversary this week and one of the more surprising macroeconomic developments during this time has been the resilience of Russia's economy, which... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in activity growth likely to be short lived With markets responding to recent strong data by ramping up interest rate expectations, there doesn’t yet seem to be much need for the Fed to embark on a renewed hawkish turn. 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Investors’ hawkish shift is justified We don’t think that wage growth will ease to levels consistent with the 2.0% inflation target without weaker economic activity and a rise in the unemployment rate. The recent resilience of the economy... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q1 resilience, ECB losses The latest survey data for February suggest that the euro-zone economy is holding up better than we expected in Q1. However, a contraction is still well within the realm of possibility. Meanwhile, we... 24th February 2023 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Krona focus could mean more Riksbank rate hikes We doubt that the Riksbank’s new-found concern for the krona will make much difference to the outlook for the currency - which will probably remain at the mercy of global developments. However, it is... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2022, second estimate) The downward revision to German Q4 GDP means the hit to activity at the end of last year was closer to our original expectation. It also suggests a technical recession in Germany during Q4 and Q1 is... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Market pressure on Yield Curve Control intensifying Deputy Governor Amamiya’s reason for rejecting the governorship has made clear that the government wants to pivot away from the ultra-easy monetary policy of the past decade. As a result, market bets... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Risk of wage-price spiral still contained The more muted rise in wages last quarter should mollify the RBA’s concerns that the surge in inflation will trigger a wage-price spiral. While the fading impact of last year’s outsized minimum wage... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Morocco’s drought, Egypt’s dollar sukuk The effects of another severe drought in Morocco have weighed on growth, pushed up inflation and fuelled pockets of unrest. Supermarkets in Europe have felt the impact too, with many reporting... 23rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
