UK Economics Weekly Households increase savings despite falling real incomes The economy contracted by more than we previously thought in Q3 2022. But the most surprising thing we learnt was that the saving rate leapt from 6.7% in Q2 to 9.0% in Q3 as households on aggregate... 23rd December 2022 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack Falling inflation will be the big story of 2023 The November CPI report marked the second successive undershoot in inflation and there is mounting evidence that it will continue to fall sharply in 2023. (See Chart 1.) Core goods prices are coming... 21st December 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation pressures still too strong for comfort The renewed rise in the three-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation in November call into question the idea that the Bank of Canada has already finished its tightening cycle... 21st December 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Full impact of higher interest rates hasn’t been felt yet According to RBA estimates, household interest payments jumped from 5.1% of disposable income in Q1 to 6.9% last quarter and we expect them to reach 12.5% by end-2023. With household debt around... 21st December 2022 · 12 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales volumes are struggling for momentum and, with the services spending indicators also showing some weakness, household consumption may be heading for a second consecutive quarterly... 20th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Event The World in 2023 - What to Expect in Advanced and Emerging Economies 1673337600 Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and colleagues from across our macro services held a special briefing on what to expect from major DMs and EMs in 2023.
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Household net worth squeezed further One third of the rise in household net worth during the pandemic has now been reversed and the further fall in house prices in November points to another deterioration this quarter. Lower net worth... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The 0.4% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in November was well below both our and the consensus estimates for 0.5% m/m and 0.3% m/m gains, and resumes the downward trend seen across most of the year... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.6% m/m falls in retail sales and manufacturing output in November suggest that the economy has lost some serious momentum, with the resilience of consumers to much higher interest rates starting... 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The disruption from virus outbreaks intensified in November, with retail sales, investment spending and industrial output all contracting by the most month-on-month since the Shanghai lockdown. Early... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Rate cuts in 2023 as growth slows Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (December) The further recovery in the ZEW in December confirms that sentiment in Germany has improved a bit, but it remains at a very low level and we still think Germany is now already in a recession. 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fixed-rate expiry large shock to household finances The full impact of the RBA’s aggressive tightening cycle on household finances hasn’t been felt yet because one-third of all mortgages have fixed-rates. Around 60% of those will expire next year and... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
