UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The 0.4% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in November was well below both our and the consensus estimates for 0.5% m/m and 0.3% m/m gains, and resumes the downward trend seen across most of the year... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.6% m/m falls in retail sales and manufacturing output in November suggest that the economy has lost some serious momentum, with the resilience of consumers to much higher interest rates starting... 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The disruption from virus outbreaks intensified in November, with retail sales, investment spending and industrial output all contracting by the most month-on-month since the Shanghai lockdown. Early... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Rate cuts in 2023 as growth slows Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (December) The further recovery in the ZEW in December confirms that sentiment in Germany has improved a bit, but it remains at a very low level and we still think Germany is now already in a recession. 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fixed-rate expiry large shock to household finances The full impact of the RBA’s aggressive tightening cycle on household finances hasn’t been felt yet because one-third of all mortgages have fixed-rates. Around 60% of those will expire next year and... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Winter recession in motion Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and weak real income growth will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. With New Zealand’s central bank determined to... 12th December 2022 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Retail recession drags on despite World Cup With retail sales volumes in November likely to have remained a little below their pre-pandemic level and 4.0% below their level at the start of the year, for retailers the recession is well underway... 9th December 2022 · 14 mins read
China Economic Outlook Bumpy road before zero-COVID is left behind The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear... 9th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth slowdown will dampen price pressures Australia’s economy continued to expand at a robust pace last quarter and there are mounting signs that the tight labour market is boosting wage growth. That suggests that the RBA isn’t done... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Moderate recession to drive inflation lower The economy is heading for a moderate recession, as higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand and exports contract amid the global downturn. Weaker demand, together with lower commodity prices... 8th December 2022 · 20 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
