US Commercial Property Update

CMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisis

News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been...

27th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Why we think yield compression will be limited

With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy

The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but...

13th June 2024 · 32 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Property values on course to fall by more than 25%

The market remains in the doldrums, with the mood negative and activity weak. We think this summer could be the bottom for transactions, but we still see valuations needing to fall by another 12% from...

11th June 2024 · 21 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Apr. 24)

Following two consecutive quarters of declines, net lending to property reached £891m in April. But looking through the monthly volatility, net lending totalled just £692m over the past three months...

31st May 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Residential outperforms within a modest recovery

Capital values for most property sectors are now close to bottoming out, but with yields set for a period of stability the recovery will be modest by past standards. We expect all-property total...

30th May 2024 · 27 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rising distress points to further value falls in Germany

While German property yields stabilised in Q1, further indications of rising distress give us confidence in our view that property values there have not yet reached the bottom.

29th May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK?

While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes...

28th May 2024 · 6 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 24)

Weak investment activity and continuing cap rate rises in Q1 fit with our view for another tough year for real estate. All-property values are now down by 17% from their mid-2022 peaks. But we still...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Update

Notes from our residential investment roundtables

At our recent roundtable we shared our view that strong rental prospects mean residential property is likely to outperform other commercial property sectors over the next five years. Across the...

17th May 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Hotel demand to recover as cost-of-living crisis abates

Spending on hotels and overseas visits to the UK are still not back to their pre-COVID-19 levels. But with cost-of-living pressures set to ease around the world and consumer spending likely to outpace...

15th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Further rises in property yields still on the cards

The weakness in euro-zone investment in Q1 highlights that the pricing correction to date has not been enough to entice investors back to the sector. Lower market interest rates will support the...

2nd May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Mar. 24)

30th April 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Q1 NPI shows more pain to come

While the headline of the Q1 NCREIF NPI data (-0.9% q/q total return) suggests we could be near the end of the price falls, we think this simply stored up bigger falls for the rest of the year. The...

26th April 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Q1 RICS survey highlights diverging market views

While overall surveyor sentiment remains negative, the Q1 RICS survey appeared to show a divergence in views between respondents of where in the cycle the market currently is. We think the apparent...

26th April 2024 · 3 mins read