Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs for January rose in most countries and add to evidence from other surveys that, while economies in Central and Eastern Europe may struggle in the early part of this year, the... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly “Lira-isation” drive deepens, MNB’s hawkish stance Turkish policymakers deepened their "lira-isation" drive this week by increasing the incentive for firms to convert their FX earnings into lira, but we're not convinced that the policy changes will be... 27th January 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook brightens, but tough times still ahead The growth outlook for 2023 across Central and Eastern Europe has brightened a bit over the past month. Wholesale European natural gas prices have continued to fall sharply and survey measures of... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) 19th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Disinflation takes hold in CEE, Russia’s budget pressures This week brought the clearest evidence yet that the disinflation process in Central Europe is underway as most economies experienced a broad-based easing of price pressures in December. This is... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Sanctions biting in Russia, three key themes for 2023 The fall in the ruble this week is a sign that the new sanctions on Russia’s oil exports are beginning to bite and, if the currency continues to fall, interest rate hikes may come back onto the table... 23rd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper lira correction risks stuffing Turkey rent gains Although prime property in Turkey saw strong rental gains in 2022, a slowing economy looks set to weigh on occupier demand and cause rent growth to decelerate next year. Meanwhile, the risk of a... 22nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE central banks still a long way from turning to cuts Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe have left interest rates on hold over the past month or so but their communications have continued to strike a relatively hawkish tone. Hungary’s... 19th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) The large increases in both industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in October provide clear signs that activity is holding up well despite the various domestic and external headwinds. But we... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Winter recession in motion Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Surveys improve, Turkey’s FX reserves rebound The batch of survey data for November released this week improved across the region, but the data are still very weak and suggest that recessions lie in store in most countries. Elsewhere, the rebound... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag, but suggest that weakening demand and the fading boost from easing supply shortages has begun to take a heavier toll on industrial sectors in... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2022) Turkey’s resilience since last year’s currency crisis came to an end in Q3 as the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q. Private consumption remained strong, but fixed investment declined and net trade was a... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil price cap lacking consensus, Russia’s 2023 budget Details about a potential price cap on Russian oil this week of $65-70pb are bringing us to the view that it won't have much of an immediate impact on Russia. We think the combination of the EU oil... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
