Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s U-turn: action will speak louder than words Optimism about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Turkey has taken hold following the appointment of Mehmet Simsek to the cabinet this weekend. Recent developments look encouraging... 5th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The fall in Turkish inflation to 39.6% y/y in May was largely driven by a sharp fall in energy prices, while core inflation increased. Bringing inflation down sustainably will require a major policy... 5th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Policy credibility in Turkey, bleak CEE GDP data The latest developments in Turkey – including the expected appointment of former finance minister Mehmet Simsek to the cabinet – provide encouraging signs that President Erdogan will moderate his... 2nd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: just how likely is a sovereign debt default? The re-election of President Erdogan has raised concerns about a possible sovereign default. We think this risk looks low for now, but it would become a bigger threat in the coming years if the... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The manufacturing PMIs for May across Emerging Europe were either flat, or edged up slightly, providing further evidence that the worst of the regional downturn is probably now behind us. That said... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Current account positions improve, but risks remain There has been further evidence over the past month that resilient export growth, weak domestic demand and lower energy prices have helped to improve current account positions across Central and... 31st May 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2023) Turkey’s economy shrugged off the impact of the earthquakes in February and grew by 0.3% q/q (4.0% y/y) in Q1. GDP growth is likely to remain soft in q/q terms this year, but a continuation of... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Latest signs of optimism in Turkey’s markets may not last A sense that President Erdogan might shift towards orthodox policymaking seems to be soothing Turkey’s financial markets, but we doubt this optimism will last long. And we think the Turkish lira will... 30th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Presidential Election Second Round (May) 29th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Calm before the storm in Turkey? Israel passes budget With the second round vote of Turkey's presidential election taking centre stage on Sunday, and Erdogan in pole position to win, the day of reckoning for Turkey's economy and financial markets may now... 26th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Crisis risks loom for Turkey’s financial markets President Erdogan looks set to secure victory in the second round of Turkey’s presidential election on 28th May. This Update sets out how we think this would play out in Turkey’s financial markets... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Latest EM elections raise policy risks The results of elections in major EMs over the past month have increased macroeconomic policy risks. Most notably in Turkey, President Erdogan now has the edge ahead of a second-round presidential... 25th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly It’s Erdogan’s show, Poland’s giveaways, GDP wrap-up Sunday's presidential election result in Turkey has left Erdogan in pole position to win in the second round run-off on 28th May. If Erdogan does win, all eyes will focus on Turkey’s imbalances and... 19th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Election offers no respite for the Turkish lira President Erdogan’s unexpectedly strong showing in Turkey’s presidential election on Sunday means that a return to orthodox policymaking looks as far away as ever. As a consequence, the Turkish lira... 15th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan ahead, but the economy may pay the price Turkey’s presidential election on Sunday was close, but Erdogan performed better than recent polls had suggested and he now has the edge ahead of a second round run-off on 28th May. Hopes of an... 15th May 2023 · 4 mins read
