Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Multi-employer pay deals add upside risks to inflation

The proposed multi-employer wage agreements risk further fuelling inflation by disruptive industrial action. And while employers could circumvent them by striking traditional enterprise agreements...

24th November 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Oct. 2022)

Australia’s labour market held up well in October, consistent with our expectations for a near-term acceleration in wage growth and a further 100bps of rate hikes by the RBA. But we think employment...

17th November 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)

Wage growth climbed above 3% in Q3 for the first time since 2013 and we expect it to climb further to 3.5% by the middle of next year.

16th November 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Resilience in consumption won’t last

The RBA Deputy Governor this week noted that the Bank is getting closer to the point where it can stop tightening, which creates some downside risks to our above-consensus interest rate forecasts...

11th November 2022 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Energy price caps could knock off 1%-pt from inflation

The proposed price caps on thermal coal and natural gas would knock off around one to 1.25%-pts from overall inflation though the full impact would only materialise in the second half of next year.

8th November 2022 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Sep. 2022)

While the trade surplus bounced back in September, we’ve pencilled in a drag from net trade to Q3 GDP growth as export volumes probably didn’t rise fast enough to offset a surge in imports.

3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia International Trade (Sep. 2022)

3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2022)

1st November 2022 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Timing and nature of “pivots” will vary

The dovish tilt among central banks has led to more talk of “pivots”, but this will mean different things for different banks. The ECB may be shifting to a slower pace of tightening, but the peak in...

1st November 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA to lift rates more sharply than most expect

The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates by 25bp today and the upward revision to its inflation forecasts are consistent with our view that rates will peak at an above-consensus 3.85%. However, we...

1st November 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 22)

1st November 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.)

The worst of the housing downturn is probably behind us but we still expect prices to fall by another 10% following the 1.1% m/m drop in October.

1st November 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2022)

-We are resending this publication due to an error in the previous email. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.- While retail sales kept rising for the ninth consecutive month in September...

31st October 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 22)

31st October 2022 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April

While the strength in Q3 inflation would favour another 50bp rate hike next week, we suspect the Reserve Bank of Australia will stick to a smaller 25bp increase. However, we are pencilling in one more...

26th October 2022 · 8 mins read