RBA Watch RBA to hike again, rate cuts only in Q2 2024 Stronger-than-expected GDP and inflation data should cement the case for the RBA to deliver a final 25bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Given the shifting balance of risks, we think the Bank will... 27th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug. 23) With Australia’s disinflationary process stalling, there’s a growing risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia will resume rate hikes in Q4. 27th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year Both economies have dodged a recession so far, but we still consider it more likely than not that output will shrink across the second half of the year. With inflation softening and labour markets... 22nd September 2023 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Higher energy inflation won’t prompt further rate hikes The recent jump in crude oil prices will lift headline inflation in Australia, but we doubt it will have much bearing on underlying inflation. Accordingly, we still think that the RBA's next move will... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian labour market will cool further Data published by Australia's Fair Work Commission revealed that pay hikes under enterprise bargaining agreements (EBAs) soared to a new high in the first fortnight of August. However, the share of... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 23) Although job creation rose at a breakneck pace last month, it was matched by an equally forceful expansion of the labour force. And with signs of spare capacity in the labour market starting to... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We still expect Australia to enter a recession The economy held a bit better last quarter than most had anticipated. And with the bulk of the RBA’s rate hikes now passed through to mortgage rates and inflation cooling, the largest falls in real... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Jul. 2023) 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) Australian house prices rose at a blistering pace in August, as demand continued to outstrip supply. Although the property market is likely to remain tight in the near term, we think house price... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Industrial action looms, residential investment falls Earlier this week, unions at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants in Australia announced their intent to begin strike action from September 7th. Although the industrial dispute will have a... 31st August 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2 2023) We don’t think the ongoing strength in private fixed investment will last. However, the balance of risks to our outlook for activity is now tilted somewhat to the upside. 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
