Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3 2024) Wage growth eased markedly in Q3, as workers in the awards system received much smaller pay hikes than last year. Although wage growth should ease further in the coming quarters, the ongoing weakness... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0 The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth partly structural The recent weakness in productivity growth is only partly due to a cyclical hangover from the pandemic as it also reflects the structural weakness in investment. With investment growth set to remain... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will start cutting rates early next year Although the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a broadly neutral stance at its meeting today, we still think it will start to lower interest rates as soon as February next year. However, with the... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Where will interest rates trough and why? We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year... 4th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q1 as capacity pressures ease Financial markets continued to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the RBA following the release of Q3 CPI data this week. As a result, t hey are now fully pricing in a rate cut only in May... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) Australia’s housing rally continued to lose steam in October. However, with the RBA set to cut interest rates from early-2025, there are good reasons not to be too bearish on the outlook for house... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) Although real retail sales saw a healthy pickup in Q3, there are reasons to suspect the data are overstating the momentum behind overall household consumption. That being the case, policy implications... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA still on course to cut rates by February The Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. We suspect it will reiterate its pledge to hold its fire until year-end, given that the labour... 30th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2024) 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Governor Orr looks to temper rate cut expectations At a recent event, RBNZ Governor Adrian emphasised the need to take a measured approach to policy easing given the "lingering inflation persistence on the domestic side". His remarks support our view... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts 30th October 2024, 2:00AM GMT Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market to keep RBA on the sidelines Following yesterday's blockbuster jobs report, financial markets have come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't loosen policy before the first half of next year. That's a stark... 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2024) With the labour market running red hot, the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t cut rates before the first half of next year. 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may consider a 75bp cut in November The RBNZ struck a rather dovish tone when it cut rates by 50bp at its meeting this week. We think that the Bank's concerns about the state of the economy are well founded, especially with new data... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
