UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Feb. 24) The smallest month-on-month increase in house prices since September suggested that the boost to house prices from the decline in mortgage rates since last summer is over. With mortgage rates now... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget – Pre-election boost to turn into post-election drag The net giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may help end the recession before an election later this year. But fiscal policy is still being tightened in 2024/25 and that... 6th March 2024 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily UK fiscal fictions unlikely to prevent lower Gilt yields Today’s UK budget announcement contained no major surprises, leaving our forecast for the 10-year Gilt yield to fall further this year and sterling to struggle against other major currencies intact. 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Spring Budget 2024 The net fiscal giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may at the margin help lift the economy out of its mild recession before an election later this year. But a big tightening in... 6th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Feb. 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to 49.7 in February, just under the no change level. The rise was driven by the housing component, with commercial activity edging back a touch. As interest... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Why this will be the slowest global recovery on record Relatively high interest rates and structural problems within offices will weigh on the commercial real estate recovery over the next three years. Indeed, we forecast the upturn will be weaker than in... 4th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Event CRE Drop-In: Unpacking the slowest commercial real estate recovery on record 1710257400 The recovery that we’re forecasting for the US, UK and euro-zone commercial property markets is likely to be the weakest on record.
UK Housing Market Update The origin of the government’s 300,000 target We have traced the government’s target of building 300,000 new homes a year in England back to the 2004 Barker Review. Rerunning the calculations two decades on suggests 385,000 new homes a year would... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Stickiest part of services inflation may soon worry BoE less Our view that the Bank of England will become less concerned by the most persistent part of services CPI inflation suggests that it will cut interest rates in the summer, perhaps in June. But the risk... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Housing leading the economy out of recession The government’s desperation to close the gap on Labour in the opinion polls means surprisingly big tax cuts shouldn’t be ruled out from the Budget on Wednesday despite the fiscal constraints that... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Price Index (Feb. 2024) Another sizeable monthly increase in the Nationwide house price index in February confirmed that lower mortgage rates are feeding through to higher prices. But recent increases in interest rate... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Despite renewed inflation concerns pushing interest rate expectations and gilt yields higher, our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year makes us think that the markets are... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Monthly Five highlights from February This Monthly looks at five highlights from the Climate Economics service in February, including the addition of Canada to our Regional Climate Databank, and the launch of our coverage of the EU carbon... 29th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jan. 24) 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jan. 2024) January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates is easing, which suggests an economic recovery, at least in some sectors, has... 29th February 2024 · 3 mins read