UK Economics Focus What would convince the Bank of England to cut rates? The key indicators that have usually convinced the Bank of England to cut interest rates suggest the first cut could come in Q1 2024. That said, rates have risen to a lower peak than most models... 30th November 2023 · 14 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have downwardly revised their expectations for 2024, as a downgrade in capital value growth outweighed some improvement in rents. That leaves us... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Oct. 23) While net lending to commercial property increased for the eighth consecutive month in October, this hasn’t translated into higher investment volumes – which fell back again in October. But further... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Lending (Oct. 23) With mortgage rates easing, the rise in mortgage approvals in October confirms that the trough in mortgage approvals is behind us. But with mortgage rates unlikely to fall much below 5% until the... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Oct. 2023) October’s money and credit data suggest that higher interest rates are continuing to percolate through the economy. As a result, the drag on real consumer spending and business investment will soon... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The rebound in the activity data in November has convinced investors that the first interest rate cut will happen later, in August next year instead of June. Our view that core inflation will ease... 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher r* means more pain for property Our recent r* work reinforces the view that property yields will stay relatively high longer term. That implies global returns in low single digits over the next decade or so, well below pre-pandemic... 27th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Yield curves may normalise next year as rate cuts begin We think that yield curves across Europe and the US will “disinvert” next year, as central banks shift towards easing monetary policy. 24th November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Decline in risk-free rates to stabilize returns Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will peak by the end of 2023. That will help stabilize capital values, but, given historically narrow yield... 24th November 2023 · 23 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Low tax/low spending rhetoric is fiscal fiction It’s true that the Chancellor’s pre-election splurge unveiled in this week’s Autumn Statement was the biggest tax-cutting package since 1988. But the reality is that the tax burden is still set to... 24th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2024 policy outlook 1702566000 A year of the most aggressive monetary tightening in a generation is expected to end with the major DM banks leaving rates on hold at their December meetings.
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Migration (Jun. 2023) The net migration figures for the year to June 2023 give some ammunition to both sides of the political divide. When it comes to the economy, it’s disappointing that despite strong net migration the... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CPIS Flash PMIs (Nov. 2023) The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 48.7 in October to 50.1 in November, is still consistent with a mild contraction in real GDP. However, activity isn’t weak enough to reduce... 23rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement – Pre-election splurge, post election squeeze The net giveaway the Chancellor announced in the Autumn Statement is designed to curry favour ahead of an election late in 2024. However, fiscal policy is still being tightened in 2024/25 and it looks... 22nd November 2023 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Autumn Fiscal Statement (22nd Nov. 2023) For more detailed analysis of the Autumn Statement, see our UK Economics Focus here. The net new giveaway the Chancellor announced today of £14.3bn in 2024/25 (0.5% of GDP) is a bit bigger than the... 22nd November 2023 · 3 mins read