UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Nov. 2023) November’s money and credit data suggest that the recent falls in mortgage rates will stimulate new mortgage borrowing, but many existing mortgage holders will still experience higher rates in the... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update New interest rate forecast – first cut sooner, end destination is 3% In a change to our previous forecast, we now think that the first interest rate cut from the Bank of England will happen in June this year rather than in November. We still think that interest rates... 3rd January 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Dec. 23) Unchanged house prices in December ensured that over the course of 2023 they fell by much less than forecasters had expected. With mortgage rates falling, it is increasingly likely that house prices... 29th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update 2023 in review While we got mortgage rates and lending roughly right in 2023, house prices fell by less than we expected as longer mortgage terms, strong demand from cash buyers, and tight supply came together to... 28th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The good news on inflation should continue in 2024 It is striking that the big fall in UK CPI inflation so far has followed the US closely, albeit with a six month lag. This reflects the fact there have been common drivers of inflation across advanced... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Nov. 2023) The 1.3% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November may have paused the recent retail woes as Black Friday discounting provided retailers with some much needed Christmas cheer. But with higher... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2023 Final) The 0.1% q/q fall in real GDP in Q3 may mean that the mildest of mild recessions started in Q3. But whether or not there is a small recession, the big picture is that we expect real GDP growth to... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Nov. 2023) We doubt November’s public finances figures will prevent the Chancellor from unveiling a further pre-election fiscal splash in the Spring Budget. 21st December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Slower economic recovery is a risk for retail rents High interest rates have taken longer to percolate through the economy than we expected, but we now think consumer spending will contract over the next six months. That poses a risk to our retail rent... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Nov. 2023) For the second month in a row, the falls in CPI inflation from 4.6% in October to 3.9% in November (consensus forecast 4.4%, CE 4.5%, BoE 4.6%) and services CPI inflation from 6.6% to 6.3% (CE... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Investors’ growing expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates in March next year, as well as the recent soft UK wage and inflation data, have convinced investors that the Bank of England... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Taking stock of investors’ interest rate expectations Fed officials have pushed back a bit against market bets for rate cuts today, helping to send yields a bit higher. But the bigger picture is that there has been a massive reassessment of the timing... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Large downward shifts in interest rate expectations mean that mortgage rates will continue to fall for the next month or two. That will support some recovery in activity and means that price declines... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 23) Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will flat-line in Q4. That will help stabilise capital values, but given historically narrow yield spreads... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Your questions after the latest central bank meetings We recently held an online Drop-In session to discuss the December policy meetings and the outlook for monetary policy in the year ahead. (See a recording here.) This Update answers several of the... 18th December 2023 · 5 mins read