Chief Economist's Note Deficits don’t matter – until the bond market decides that they do You don’t need fluent French to understand what France’s finance minister was referring to when he warned of “un scénario à la Liz Truss” if the far right wins in upcoming legislative elections. Bruno... 24th June 2024
Asset Allocation Update French politics need not sink euro-zone stocks Recent political uncertainty in France has taken a big toll on equities there, but stock markets elsewhere in the euro-zone have generally avoided major selloffs. That’s broadly consistent with past... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Excessive deficits; lessons from Italy’s 2018 mini crisis The European Commission this week announced its intention to put five euro-zone countries, including France and Italy, into Excessive Deficit Procedures. This will concentrate investors’ minds on the... 21st June 2024 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk 1720432800 Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down?
Europe Economics Update French bond sell-off could get worse We see three scenarios for French fiscal policy in the coming months. Even in the best case the spread of French over German bond yields remains higher than before Macron called an early election. In... 20th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Political uncertainty to hit French property values Investor concerns about the upcoming snap legislative elections have pushed up French government bond yields and we think they will rise further over the rest of the year. This has worsened the... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: French political turmoil and macro/market spillover risks 1718805600 Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative election has triggered turmoil in French politics that is spilling into its financial markets.
Capital Daily A poor week for French bonds and equities French government bonds and equities have sold off this week, and the euro has weakened. A lot of bad news now seems priced in, but we suspect the discount on French assets is here to stay. 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty might push French OAT yields even higher The 10-year yield spread between government bonds in France and Germany has risen above 80bp, its highest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Should the far-right National Rally be in a position to form... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France risk and ”reverse contagion” It is difficult to know how radical (or reckless) France’s next government will be on fiscal policy, but the risks to France’s public finances have certainly risen since the snap election was called... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update How radical would Le Pen’s party be in office? France’s National Rally has advocated policies that would increase the budget deficit and provoke clashes with the EU. During the election campaign, it will probably moderate these views, but the... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France early election, EU elections Support for the centrists has held up quite well in European elections but this was overshadowed by the jump in votes for the far-right in France and President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve... 10th June 2024 · 3 mins read
