Europe Economics Weekly No quick fix in sight for France; ECB to hold rates This week’s PMI data suggest that France’s political and fiscal crises are taking an increasing toll on the economic outlook. And with little prospect of meaningful fiscal consolidation before next... 23rd October 2026 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-in: France Under Pressure: Is Euro-Zone Crisis 2.0 Coming? 27th October 2026, 2:00PM GMT With French government bonds under pressure, protests gripping the country and the government struggling to pass a budget, we are holding a briefing, on Tuesday 27th October, to as
Capital Daily French sovereign bonds not OAT of the woods While renewed hopes of a peace in the Middle East and lower energy prices have brought some relief to government bond markets today, the widening of the spread between French sovereign bonds and those... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are the contagion risks from France? France appears to be heading for a fiscal crisis which could lead to contagion and potentially a recession in the euro-zone. However, several factors mean the contagion risks to other countries’ bond... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris office values to take the hardest hit from higher rates Paris office values are set to fall by almost 10% peak-to-trough – the largest decline in the euro-zone – as weakening prime rental growth combines with sharper rises in yields than in other markets. 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Le Pen the fiscal hawk? Merz the China hawk? Marine Le Pen's proposals this week to slash France's budget deficit are unlikely to have done much to bolster her fiscal credentials. Meanwhile, the joint letter by Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market turmoil just the latest blow for French stocks Turmoil in France’s bond market has added more pain to an already miserable year for equities there, and we doubt a big recovery is likely anytime soon. 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s bond sell-off has further to run This week’s sharp sell-off in French government bonds suggests that investors have woken up to the severity of country’s public debt problem. Even if things calm down a bit in the coming weeks, which... 2nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone National HICP (September 2026) Data released for Germany, France, Italy and Spain point to an increase in euro-zone headline inflation from 3.2% in August to 3.7% in September. They also suggest that the indirect effects of higher... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Election worries will keep pressure on French bonds Global bond markets have taken a big hit in recent months, but French government bonds have been singled out. We think this makes sense given the widening fiscal deficit and the growing risks around... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Investors expecting too many hikes from the ECB The euro-zone economy is likely to continue growing at around its trend rate of 1% over the next year or two. Among the largest countries, Germany, France and Italy will grow at a modest pace while... 24th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September 2026) September’s big improvement in the euro-zone’s composite PMI supports our view that despite the weakness in the official activity data in July, GDP will increase in Q3. The output price PMIs rose too... 23rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond markets and underlying inflation under control? Since the Iran war began, the sell-off in euro-zone government bond markets has been greatest in countries with high and/or rising public debt. We forecast yields across the currency union to fall... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Little macroeconomic impact of horrendous wildfires The wildfires that have been raging in France and Spain have already had a devastating effect on many businesses and there may be worse to come. However, their aggregate impact on GDP and the... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2026) National data released so far suggest that activity in the euro-zone held up quite well in the second quarter, with GDP in the euro-zone excluding Ireland probably rising by 0.2% q/q . We suspect it... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
