Europe Economics Update Wealth taxes: no silver bullet There have been renewed calls for a wealth tax recently as a means of narrowing budget deficits. However, experience suggests that most countries would struggle to raise more than around 0.1% of GDP... 28th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update A bad deal is (just about) better than no deal The trade agreement confirmed yesterday by Presidents Trump and von der Leyen could result in the average tariff on US imports from the EU rising from 1.2% last year to about 17%. We think this will... 28th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus The causes of fiscal crises and their economic impact History shows that there are no debt or deficit thresholds beyond which a fiscal crisis is inevitable. Rather, crises stem from a mix of high debt, poor debt dynamics, and weak fiscal credibility... 24th July 2025 · 26 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2025) July’s Composite PMI for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy doing little more than stagnate. But policymakers at the ECB will be encouraged by the evidence that services price pressures are... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone spreads: beyond “core” and “periphery” Government bond yields in the euro-zone are converging, and we expect the “peripheral” frontier to keep blurring. 22nd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update French borrowing costs may soon exceed Italy’s We think France’s government borrowing costs will rise above those of Italy before long. This may seem surprising in light of Italy’s higher debt burden and lower trend growth rate, but it reflects... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain Flash HICP (June) National data published so far suggest that both euro-zone headline and core inflation were little changed and close to 2% in June. That will please ECB officials, who we expect to cut rates one more... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why we still predict Paris office rents to grow by more than the consensus Despite a sluggish economic backdrop and rising vacancy rates in the wider Paris office market, we continue to believe that prime office rental growth will be stronger than the consensus expects. This... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Where do fiscal deficits need to shrink most? Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and most will find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal sustainability. The US and France have... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Narrowing of euro-zone spreads not as good as it looks While spreads in the euro-zone have narrowed further recently, nearing multi-year lows, this is mainly because underlying German Bund yields have risen. Indeed, public finances in some euro-zone... 13th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Residential in the UK and the Netherlands to outperform European residential property outperformed all-property for the third consecutive year in 2024 and our updated forecasts suggest that this will continue over the coming five years. Returns were... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May 2025) The euro-zone’s flash PMIs for May suggest that manufacturing output continues to be supported by the front-running of US tariffs. But the bigger picture is that the services sector weakened... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus A European defence revolution? Europe’s economy will receive a modest boost from the German-led rise in defence spending over the next couple of years. The bigger question is whether it is the start of a move towards creating a... 13th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France & Italy Flash Inflation (April) National data published so far suggest that euro-zone inflation remained at 2.2% in April, and that core inflation probably rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. (Euro-zone data due on Friday 2 nd May). But with... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
