Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December) The drop-back in the euro-zone Composite PMI in December provides more evidence that the economy is in recession as domestic and foreign demand contracts. 15th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November 2023) Despite the rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November, it remained consistent with the economy contracting 0.2% in Q4. Meanwhile, the breakdown provides further evidence that the labour market... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Fiscal health and the outlook for the euro-zone’s bond markets We continue to forecast a small fall in euro-zone yield spreads over Bunds in the next year or so. However, rising risks to the upside in recent months and differences in fiscal positions between... 22nd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update How worrying are France’s public finances? The EU’s criticism of French fiscal policy is not in itself a major concern. But France’s debt-to-GDP ratio may well rise over time rather than declining as the government intends. The key problem is... 21st November 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France GDP (Q3) The slowdown in French GDP growth from an upwardly-revised +0.6% q/q in Q2 to only 0.1% in Q3 (see Chart 1) was a little better than the consensus and our own forecast (+0.1% and -0.2% q/q) and means... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The fiscal implications of the rise in bond yields Perceptions matter at least as much as actual policies in determining fiscal stability. Accordingly, the surge in bond yields over the past month poses the greatest risk to those countries where the... 16th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Calm and voluptuousness no more for luxury equities? Equities in the Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods industry have fared quite poorly recently, which has weighed on the luxury-heavy French stock market. But while they might underperform a bit more in... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain... 27th September 2023 · 31 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The small increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in September left it still in contractionary territory. We think a further contraction in activity lies ahead in the remainder of this year. 22nd September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain and Italy hit harder by ECB rate hikes The higher share of floating rate mortgages in Italy and Spain means that household interest spending in both countries has risen much further than in Germany and France. Interest spending is also set... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s windfall tax, France’s cruise ship The kerfuffle over the Italian government’s planned windfall bank tax is not likely to have any lasting impact on the economy, not least because PM Giorgia Meloni moved swiftly to limit the damage... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the Olympics boost Paris prime retail rents? While Paris rents have been flat for some time, there are signs that the post-pandemic rebound in tourism is starting to boost high street luxury retail. And the upcoming Paris Olympics in 2024 will... 8th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French equities may struggle to outperform again The French stock market’s strong showing since 2018 appears to have been built on solid ground. But French equities have stopped outperforming their German peers this year, and the bar is quite high... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France and Spain GDP (Q2 2023) The big increases in Q2 GDP in Spain and particularly France suggest that the euro-zone has so far coped with policy tightening much better than feared. However, the France data were flattered by... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
