Europe Economics Weekly More EZ stagflation ahead; hawkish central banks We think the euro-zone will experience a more severe case of stagflation than most expect, and inflation and survey data due next week are likely to support that view. Elsewhere, the SNB and Norges... 23rd June 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Weakness in both services and manufacturing sectors The fall in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI from 52.8 in May to 50.3 in June left it even lower than our below-consensus forecast. On the face of it, the index still points to a small expansion in... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Reading the monetary tea leaves for clues on bonds A disparate range of global central banks have delivered their latest policy rate verdicts over the past 24 hours. We think there are four key points for investors to note . 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
Asset Allocation Update European equities: no AI, no party? Since bottoming out late last year, European and US equities have fared comparably in local-currency terms, and European stocks have even outperformed in dollar terms. Looking ahead, however, we think... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will there be a reckoning for European offices? The latest MSCI data indicate that values in western European office markets have held up better since the start of the pandemic when compared with the US and UK. But given these cities face similar... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, weak economy The ECB’s messaging this week was hawkish and suggests that the risks are skewed towards the ECB’s deposit rate rising above our forecast to a peak of 3.75%. Recent data support the Bank’s view that... 16th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Investors may be underestimating eventual rate cuts How low Fed and ECB policy rates will go, when they are eventually normalised, is at least as important for financial markets as the precise timings of the ends of tightening cycles, in our view. We... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fed and ECB to hike in July, but US & EZ bond yields may fall While the ECB and the Fed took slightly different paths this week, we think they will both tighten policy again in July. Nonetheless, we still think government bond yields in the US and the euro-zone... 15th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB hikes and signals more to come The ECB raised its deposit rate to 3.5% today and President Lagarde all but promised another hike next month. Our baseline forecast remains that interest rates will peak in July and stay there until... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update How have our homeworking assumptions fared? In our Focus of September 2020, we made some assumptions about how the pandemic would impact working from home in office-based sectors across Europe. Almost three years on, we look back at these to... 15th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The uptick in industrial production in April was mostly driven by strong growth in Ireland, with many other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to struggle this... 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone recession to drag on The euro-zone has fallen into recession, albeit only by the finest of margins – the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in both Q4 last year and Q1 this year. The consensus view is that the worst is now... 9th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Employment will not defy gravity forever We learnt this week that the euro-zone fell into recession but Eurostat confirmed that employment rose sharply in Q1. The labour market seems to have remained quite strong in April and May but we... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone bond yields may have already peaked While we anticipate that the ECB will deliver more rate hikes this year, we don’t think that this would trigger another leg up in long-term euro-zone government bond yields. In fact, we suspect that... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
