Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November 2023) Despite the rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November, it remained consistent with the economy contracting 0.2% in Q4. Meanwhile, the breakdown provides further evidence that the labour market... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Fiscal health and the outlook for the euro-zone’s bond markets We continue to forecast a small fall in euro-zone yield spreads over Bunds in the next year or so. However, rising risks to the upside in recent months and differences in fiscal positions between... 22nd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update How worrying are France’s public finances? The EU’s criticism of French fiscal policy is not in itself a major concern. But France’s debt-to-GDP ratio may well rise over time rather than declining as the government intends. The key problem is... 21st November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Government debt sustainability back under the spotlight Shifts in the long-term outlook for interest rates relative to GDP growth have left the fiscal position in most developed economies looking more precarious. Unless governments manage to reduce their... 21st November 2023 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany’s constitutional court strikes again The constitutional court ruling that the German government's use of off-budget funds is unlawful is another headache for the ruling coalition in Berlin. However, we doubt that it will result in as... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2023) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The slowdown in rent growth so far this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop... 16th November 2023 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CE now further below consensus November’s IPF Consensus Survey showed that, although euro-zone office rental growth is expected to slow next year, forecasts remained unchanged on average from the May survey. In contrast, given the... 15th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sept.) Euro-zone industrial production fell in September and is likely to continue contracting in the final quarter of the year, primarily due to weak demand. 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) and Employment (Q3 2023) We do not think the slight acceleration in employment growth in Q3 is a sign of things to come. With business surveys deep in contractionary territory and firms’ hiring intentions falling sharply, the... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revolving doors on the Iberian peninsula The resignation of Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa and news of a coalition government being formed behind incumbent Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez this week could shift the two economies’ relative... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Credit data point to recessions in DMs Bank lending data from the major advanced economies confirmed that lending was very subdued in September and the latest bank lending surveys show that banks have since tightened their lending criteria... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen... 8th November 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep. 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in September and, in our view, will remain weak in the coming months as the economy falls into recession. 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Construction activity will continue to decline Activity in the euro-zone’s construction sector is declining and the outlook is poor. The latest surveys suggest that construction output will decline by up to 2% q/q in Q4. 7th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Italian households save the day? Italian households have been the main net purchasers of Italian government bonds recently and we suspect that they will buy a lot more in the coming months. However, the sustainability of Italy’s debt... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
