Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s improvement in the EC consumer and business survey and fall in German unemployment suggest that the euro-zone is holding up well for now. But the worrying divergence between core and... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB's tightening bias should not last long Recent comments from ECB members, together with a reduction in its bank lending and halt to bond purchases, suggest that the Bank has maintained a tightening bias. It will probably keep open the... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would a break-up of the euro help or hinder recovery? The long-term effects of some form of break-up of the euro-zone might ultimately prove to be positive. But the likely short-term damage means that such an event would hinder, rather than help, the... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest euro-zone broad money and credit data provide further signs that the problems in the banking sector may be easing. Nonetheless, credit growth remains very weak and supports our view that... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still battling to achieve fiscal stability Last week was characterised by fairly downbeat news on economic activity and ongoing struggles to achieve fiscal goals. Although the German business surveys remained positive, October’s fall in the... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why even Germany needs ECB support Some reporters have put recent hawkish remarks by Axel Weber, the Bundesbank’s ECB representative, down to the relative strength of the German economy. But even there, the economic outlook warrants... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s fall in the euro-zone composite PMI adds to evidence that the recovery is stalling and that the external revival is failing to boost domestic spending. 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Housing revival unlikely to drive a consumer recovery There are early signs of a revival in euro-zone housing markets. Even in the periphery, the housing market seems to have passed its worst, which on the face of it, may provide some relief to consumers... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB sitting stubbornly on the sidelines The latest speech by Governing Council member Axel Weber has highlighted the growing divergence between the ECB and more pro-active central banks elsewhere. We hope that the Bank might yet take bolder... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) & CPI (Final, Sep.) August’s euro-zone trade figures suggest that the region is coping with slowing global demand pretty well for now. But with the euro appearing increasingly likely to be a major loser in any global... 15th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s healthy rise in euro-zone industrial production will help to ease concerns that the recovery in the sector is grinding to a halt. 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How much will the strong euro hurt? The euro’s rise to a nine-month high against the US dollar last week suggests that the euro-zone has lost what may turn out to be the opening skirmishes of a global currency war. If the euro remained... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB not yet ready to increase its support The ECB maintained a fairly dovish tone today, pledging continued support for commercial banks and possibly more peripheral government bond purchases. But there was little to suggest that the Bank... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Income returns hold the key for the next two years (Q4 10) We suspect that euro-zone commercial property yields may fall a little further by the end of this year. However, the bulk of the investment market recovery may well be behind us. Subdued economic... 6th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Ireland: Closure or Calamity? The Irish Government deserves some credit for coming clean last week on the “horrendous” costs of its banking support measures, although its openness may have been dictated as much by public... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.) Euro-zone unemployment figures for August showed further signs of improvement in labour market conditions in some core economies but unemployment continued to rise in the peripheral economies. 1st October 2010 · 1 min read
