Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Frothy coffee?; EU gas woe; "Max pressure", little impact While the steady upward grind in EU natural gas prices has been less spectacular than the recent hockey stick-shaped surge in the price of arabica coffee beans, the doubling in EU gas prices since... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Commodities Drop-In: Trump, tariffs and the commodities markets impact 13th February 2025, 3:00PM GMT Tariffs on energy suppliers. Tariffs on metals suppliers. A push to end the Ukraine war. A National Energy Emergency. Less than one month in.
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone wage growth set to ease significantly Despite the focus on r* recently at the ECB, we think that wage inflation will be a more important guide for monetary policy. And the ECB’s wage tracker released earlier this week suggests that wage... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Estimates of neutral policy rate won’t tie ECB’s hands Comparing the ECB’s deposit rate to estimates of its equilibrium level suggests that monetary policy will soon be only slightly restrictive. But there is a huge amount of uncertainty around these... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: German election 2025 – The new government’s domestic and global challenges 24th February 2025, 10:00AM GMT Will the federal election outcome bring any clarity to Germany’s existential economic and political questions?
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jan. 2025) The 0.7% m/m rise in the Halifax house price index in January is at odds with the muted 0.1% m/m increase in the Nationwide measure and suggests that the housing market continues to shrug off both the... 7th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields likely to fall and weigh on the pound We expect the Bank of England to cut faster and further than investors expect, pushing Gilt yields down and in turn weighing on the pound. 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update UK equities may underperform despite tariff insulation The UK stock market appears to be riding high – the FTSE 100 has hit a record high. But local-currency returns from UK equities have been flattered by a weaker pound. In common-currency terms, UK... 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Platinum set to take a narrow lead over palladium A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly... 6th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Risk of CRE debt distress greater in the EZ than the UK A stabilisation in capital values and decline in interest rates have sparked optimism that we may be past the worst of the real estate debt refinancing challenge. That indeed looks to be the case in... 6th February 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Rising chance of BoE rates falling quicker to 3.50% and further While cutting interest rates from 4.75% to 4.50% today, which was the third 25 basis point (bps) cut in seven months, the Bank of England showed some signs that it may cut rates faster and further... 6th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.75%, and we think that further easing lies in store this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to fall to 3.00% by end-2025 would... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (6th Feb 2025) While cutting interest rates from 4.75% to 4.50% today, which was the third 25 basis point (bps) cut in seven months, the Bank of England showed some signs that it may cut rates faster and further... 6th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec. 24) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales means that growth over Q4 as a whole slowed substantially. We suspect that spending growth will remain subdued in the coming quarters. 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (Jan. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI dropped to 48.1 in January, from 53.3 in December, indicating the first contraction in activity since February 2024. 6th February 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Despite the recent weak news on activity and the uncertainty around the global outlook due to Trump’s US import tariffs, the stronger news on domestic price pressures means the Bank of England will... 5th February 2025 · 1 min read
