Europe Commercial Property Outlook End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but... 13th June 2024 · 32 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK Equities may underperform regardless of the election We doubt the outcome of the UK’s general election will have a big impact on UK equities in general. Nonetheless, we still expect them to continue to underperform US equities. 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (April 2024) The 0.1% m/m decrease in euro-zone industrial production in April was slightly weaker than the published consensus forecast of 0.2% rise, but expectations will have fallen since Ireland’s data were... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2024) Faltering demand and rising supply mean prices will slip back The May RICS survey was the weakest so far this year, as new demand faltered and sales slowed. With the quantity of homes coming onto the... 13th June 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Focus The euro could stay lower for longer Although the EUR/USD exchange rate is not far above multi-decade lows, we think structural factors mean that the euro is close to “fair value” relative to the US dollar and most other major currencies... 12th June 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Focus Could new fiscal rules spur on the economy? The current fiscal framework is not perfect and could be reformed to improve investor confidence in the management of the public finances, tilt the composition of spending towards investment and... 12th June 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EU duties on Chinese EVs Reports that the European Commission will “provisionally apply” additional duties of up to 25% on imports of EVs from China from July, on top of the 10% tariff already in place, are in line with... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2024) The stagnation in GDP in April (consensus 0.0%, CE -0.1%) doesn’t mean the economic recovery has been extinguished, but it’s hardly great news for the Prime Minister three weeks ahead of the election. 12th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How radical would Le Pen’s party be in office? France’s National Rally has advocated policies that would increase the budget deficit and provoke clashes with the EU. During the election campaign, it will probably moderate these views, but the... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone export prospects have improved Sluggish economic growth in the euro-zone’s trading partners and a deterioration in competitiveness caused an extremely rare absolute decline in euro-zone export volumes last year. Poor... 11th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr. 2024) The stickiness of wage growth in April will be a lingering concern for the Bank of England. But with employment falling sharply and the unemployment rate climbing, we think wage growth will soon be... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Europe’s shock election results, Macron’s gamble and the economic outlook 1718013600 The shock results of Europe’s parliament elections have roiled markets as investors respond harshly to news of President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve F
