ECB Watch Staff forecasts to highlight weaker growth prospects Mounting evidence of a sharp slowdown in eurozone economic activity has caused the chances of another interest rate hike to evaporate. But the ECB is still deeply concerned about upside risks to... 28th August 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s optimism likely to prove misplaced Upbeat comments from Swiss National Bank Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth in this morning’s press are atodds with our own view. While it is true that some aspects of the Swiss economy appear robust fornow... 19th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weaker euro-zone economy to dent UK exports The recent weakening in the outlook for the euro-zone economy – the destination for around half of the UK’s exports – suggests that there is a risk that activity in the UK will be even weaker than the... 14th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices to fall by 25% The recent run of terrible economic news from Spain and the sharp falls in house prices in a number of other developed economies have led us to revise down our forecast for Spanish house prices. We... 13th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus French consumers – slowdown, not slump Recent data on the French household sector have flattened hopes that healthy consumer spending growth would prevent a sharp economic slowdown. With inflation soaring, consumer confidence at a record... 12th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sun not about to set on Greece Recent news from Greece has provided some encouraging signs that it is escaping the economic slowdown which now appears to be engulfing the other Club-Med economies. 11th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for some months yet Comments from the European Central Bank have retained a relatively hawkish tone, suggesting that it will be some time before the Bank is prepared to bolster the flagging economy with interest rate... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks mounting The latest data from the euro-zone suggest that the economy is at risk of entering a technical recession. Leaked information revealing that the German economy contracted by around 1.0% q/q in Q2... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone could be first to enter recession Our view that the euro-zone economy would fare relatively well in the global downturn has been undermined by the latest news on Germany and the deterioration in the business surveys. It now looks... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Slowing activity will eventually prompt rate cuts Ongoing fears over the inflation outlook will leave the ECB in a fairly hawkish mood for now. But recent signs that the economy is stagnating (at best) support our view that interest rates will not... 31st July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Pick-up in German wages growth won't last long The latest evidence of rising German wages growth suggests that households’ real incomes are receiving some much-needed support. But we still expect slowing activity to prevent wages growth from... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy: is the prognosis terminal for Europe's sick man? In recent months, the outlook for the Italian economy has deteriorated at an alarming pace. While economists are unanimous in their view that Italy will continue to lag well behind the euro-zone, we... 28th July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Inflation dents growth prospects (Q3 08) Our long-held view that the European economy will fare relatively well during the current global economic downturn has come under threat from the surge in inflation in the region. Not only has the... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling house prices pile further pressure on Spain The latest housing market data from Spain revealed that house prices have begun to fall. Over the coming quarters, we expect the slowdown to pick up pace, causing a further downturn in the... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB not pre-disposed to further rate hikes A softer tone from the European Central Bank has supported our view that today’s interest rate hike will not be the first in a series. Indeed, given more signs lately of a marked slowdown in economic... 3rd July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank signals further rate increases The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.25% to 4.50% was widely expected, but the Bank’s signal that rates could rise twice more this year shows that it believes the economy will... 3rd July 2008 · 1 min read
