ECB Watch ECB to deliver 50bp, but probably no more just yet While the latest comments from the ECB suggest that it is not prepared to slash interest rates quite as aggressively as some other central banks, at least another 50bp reduction this month seems like... 27th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Forecasting European Commercial Property - Our Approach For clients of our new European Commercial Property service, this note provides a guide to our philosophy and forecast methodology. In short, our approach to analysing and forecasting commercial... 26th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EC’s fiscal stimulus will not save the economy The European Commission’s call for a fiscal stimulus of 1.5% of GDP makes little difference to the economic outlook. Indeed, some European governments will argue that they have already done enough... 26th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland: Outlook bleak, despite IMF rescue The joke about the differences between Iceland and Ireland (one letter and about six months) might provide some encouragement to the latter in the light of recent signs that Iceland is turning the... 20th November 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland: Outlook bleak, despite IMF rescue Iceland’s $4.6bn IMF-led rescue package will provide the economy with much-needed funds to help cover its external financing requirement. But it will not be enough to prevent a severe and prolonged... 20th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update External sector leading Italy into a deep recession Recent data on the Italian external sector has painted a worrying picture of the outlook for exporters. With the domestic economy in no position to pick up the slack, we think that the consensus view... 18th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal confirms diminishing price pressures The latest information on pay negotiations in Germany supports our view that any pick-up in wages growth in the coming months will be modest and short-lived. While this is bad news for German... 12th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB lagging, but rates have much further to fall Following today’s decision to cut interest rates by 50bp to 3.25%, President Trichet’s comments confirmed that the ECB is not about to slash rates as aggressively as the Bank of England. Nonetheless... 6th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New French Government forecasts still look too optimistic Despite today’s downward revisions, the French Government’s projections for GDP growth and the public finances still look much too optimistic. The fact that the Government seems prepared to allow... 6th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Plunging surveys point to economic contraction The euro-zone economic outlook has gone from bad to worse. The sharpest ever drop in the previously reliable EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in October left it pointing to annual falls in GDP of... 4th November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian recession to be worse than the early 90s downturn The latest data from the industrial sector provide the clearest signs yet that the global economic slowdown, coupled with Italy’s fundamental lack of competitiveness, is taking a heavy toll on the... 3rd November 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Caught in the storm (Q4 08) The outlook for the European economy has continued to deteriorate as the global financial crisis has intensified and the international environment has worsened. At the same time, domestic housing... 30th October 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another 50bps now and much more to come Severe strains in financial markets and a rapid deterioration in economic conditions have finally prompted a turnaround in the ECB’s previously hawkish stance. This supports our long-held view that... 30th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates and signals further falls to come The Norges Bank today cut interest rates for the second time this month and signalled that further cuts are to come. But we continue to expect stronger economic fundamentals to ensure that rates fall... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far will global house prices fall? To date, only a few major economies have been afflicted by large scale falls in house prices. But all that will change in 2009. Housing is significantly overvalued across much of Europe, as well as in... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank cuts rates and signals further falls to come The Norges Bank today cut interest rates for the second time this month and signalled that furthercuts are to come. But we continue to expect stronger economic fundamentals to ensure that rates... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read
