Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates before year-end A much more dovish tone from President Trichet today suggests that the Bank will cut interest rates before the year is out. Markets are coming around to our long-held view that rates will reach 3%... 2nd October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Financial turmoil takes centre stage The euro-zone activity outlook has weakened further, but September’s dramatic financial market and banking sector developments have obviously grabbed the limelight. With a number of euro-zone... 2nd October 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The implications of the Irish bank guarantee Another wave of euro-zone government bailouts and a bank guarantee by the Irish government show that the credit crunch is beginning to take a greater hold on the region, raising the risk of a more... 30th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fortis bailout adds to markets' worries Yesterday’s €11.2bn government bailout of Fortis Bank, the largest euro-zone bank rescue sinc the credit crunch began, is the starkest evidence yet that the region’s banking system is not immune to... 29th September 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Stubbornly focused on inflation risks Recent ECB communications have maintained a stubbornly hawkish tone, despite extreme tension in financial markets and growing evidence of weak activity. This month’s press statement is unlikely to... 25th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Irish boom turns to bust Ireland’s second quarter GDP figures confirmed the inevitable – that the collapse in the property sector has driven the wider economy into a recession. With house prices set to fall considerably... 25th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro-zone slowdown – inflation squeeze or credit crunch? The downturn in the euro-zone economy largely reflects the temporary squeeze from high inflation rather than a fundamental adjustment triggered by the credit crunch as is the case in the US and UK... 23rd September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB set to cut rates next year The Swiss National Bank left its target range for three-month interest rates unchanged at a mid-point of 2.75%. But with the economic slowdown set to intensify and inflation on course to return to... 18th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB set to disappoint markets in the near term Interest rate expectations in the euro-zone have fallen sharply along with those elsewhere in recent weeks and are now pricing in a strong chance of an ECB rate cut this year. While we think that talk... 17th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German political re-shuffle reduces chance of tax cuts The latest changes to the leadership of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) probably bode well for long-term structural reform of the economy. But they also further reduce the chance of near-term... 8th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB still fretting over inflation outlook The European Central Bank’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that interest rate cuts are not yet on the agenda. But we still expect slowing activity and falling energy inflation to... 4th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank signals that interest rates have peaked The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.50% to 4.75% clearly shows that it remains concerned about the emergence of ”second-round inflation” effects. But while the Bank did signal... 4th September 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals that interest rates have peaked The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.50% to 4.75% clearly shows that it remains concerned about the emergence of ”second-round inflation” effects. But while the Bank did signal... 4th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unlikely to rip up the lending rulebook Thursday’s ECB press conference provides the Bank with a chance to provide greater details about any proposed changes to its collateral requirements for lending in its open market operations. While we... 3rd September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation starting to fall Euro-zone consumer price inflation has finally begun to fall, slipping from 4.0% to 3.8% in August. If the oil price remains at current levels, falling energy inflation alone should knock at least 1.5... 3rd September 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Staff forecasts to highlight weaker growth prospects Mounting evidence of a sharp slowdown in eurozone economic activity has caused the chances of another interest rate hike to evaporate. But the ECB is still deeply concerned about upside risks to... 28th August 2008 · 1 min read
