Europe Chart Pack Stronger euro raises pressure on ECB The renewed surge in the euro to all-time highs against the US dollar and sterling has intensified concerns about the prospects for the industrial and external sectors. The tradeweighted euro is... 5th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Industrial slump adds to Spain's pre-election woes Evidence of a major slump in Spain’s industrial sector has further worsened the outlook for the economy ahead of this weekend’s general election. We remain concerned that, whatever the outcome of the... 3rd March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus France to outshine Germany this year With the export-driven recovery in Germany faltering as global demand weakens, a healthy consumer sector should stand France in good stead to make up ground on its larger neighbour. While German GDP... 3rd March 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Cracks in ECB's hawkish stance to widen We suspect that suggestions that the ECB will signal an imminent cut in interest rates at March’s Governing Council meeting will be disappointed. Nonetheless, with the new staff economic forecasts... 28th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal will add to the ECB’s inflation concerns The news that Germany’s largest trade union, IG Metall, has won a 5.2% pay rise over the next 14 months has added to concerns over a build-up in medium-term inflationary pressures. While we think that... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How hard will it rain in Spain? Most commentators are agreed that the Spanish economy is heading for a slowdown. But we think the “consensus” forecast of a relatively soft landing is too optimistic. We expect a major downturn in the... 14th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France won't succumb to pressure to reduce deficit The latest pressure on the French government to bring its finances into order is unlikely to alter its fiscal plans in the near term. Indeed, with tough talk from other euro-zone ministers confirming... 12th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB starts to soften While the European Central Bank declined to follow the Fed and Bank of England in cutting interest rates today, tentative signs of a softening in its previously stubbornly hawkish stance support our... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Activity slips into rate-cutting territory The news on the euro-zone economy has continued to weaken in the early weeks of 2008. Most strikingly, the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has slipped to levels which, on some previous... 6th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Economic weakness highlights downside property risks (Feb 09) The latest data suggest that the required adjustment in commercial property yields in the euro-zone continued in 2008Q4. But the outlook for occupier markets deteriorated, reinforcing our belief that... 5th February 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Interest rates heading for 3.0%, eventually The ECB is likely to maintain a hawkish stance at February’s Governing Council meeting and press conference, denting hopes that it might cut interest rates within a couple of months. But with the... 31st January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won't cushion the euro-zone Recent calls (most notably from IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn) for governments to use fiscal policy to support their economies beg the question of whether the euro-zone might benefit from such... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
