Europe Economics Update Italian political crisis another blow to slowing economy The latest political crisis in Italy is unlikely to have a major impact on the markets or the economy itself. Nonetheless, at a time when consumer confidence is already slumping, the additional... 25th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Can Europe weather the storm? (Q1 08) After two years of rapid expansion, the European economy is set to slow sharply in 2008 in response to the combination of weakening global activity, previous increases in interest rates, tighter... 24th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates to 3.0% We argued back in December that expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates this year would prove to be wrong. With economic activity in the region continuing to cool and other central banks... 23rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Outlook remains bleak for the Spanish housing market The latest Spanish house price data revealed that house prices rose solidly in Q4 last year. Nonetheless, other indicators of housing market activity are much less healthy and we continue to expect... 18th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How are German consumers feeling? Recent surveys of consumer sentiment have suggested that German consumers are in schizophrenic mood. While they remain pretty upbeat about the economic outlook, they have yet to translate that into... 15th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB hawkish for now, but next move will be down M. Trichet’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that the ECB is unlikely to follow other major central banks in cutting interest rates in the near future. However, a further slowdown... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German wage negotiations not a major threat to inflation Wage negotiations begin in Germany today between employers and the services and public sector unions Ver.di and DBB. The unions’ demands for an 8% pay rise have raised concerns over the buildup of a... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update DAX outperformance no longer supported by economics The outperformance of the German equity market relative to its European neighbours like France no longer appears to be supported by the latest economic indicators. 9th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation to squeeze household spending Spanish CPI inflation surged to 4.3% in December, its highest rate in over 12 years. The widespread system of indexing wage settlements to inflation in Spain should ultimately protect workers’ incomes... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Hawkish stance to soften in H2 Concerns about the inflation outlook in the eurozone are likely to keep the ECB firmly in hawkish mood in the early months of 2008. But slowing activity, falling overseas interest rates and the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation worries boost interest rate expectations The recent combination of rising inflation, hawkish signals from the ECB and some fall in interbank interest rates has led the markets to price back in a significant chance of a final rise in interest... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB likely to stay on hold for some time The SNB was never likely to shock markets with an interest rate hike today, particularly in the current environment of uncertainty. While the Bank seems to have maintained a slight tightening bias, we... 13th December 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle not yet over The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates today for the third time since the beginning of thefinancial market turmoil is in stark contrast to the actions of some other central banks. Given... 12th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the ECB lag behind? The markets and most forecasters believe that the European Central Bank will sit on its hands and leave euro-zone interest rates unchanged throughout 2008 while the US Fed and UK MPC both loosen... 5th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How far can the euro-zone de-couple from the US? The European and US economies have moved closely together over recent decades, with most major slowdowns in the US followed by an even deeper or more protracted downturn in Europe. But there are some... 3rd December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What has the euro done for the euro-zone? The euro cannot be blamed for relatively weak economic growth in the euro-zone, or for the region’s difficulties competing in international markets. But neither has it brought the vast benefits that... 29th November 2007 · 1 min read
