Capital Daily Prospect of more ECB hikes may not push up yields or the euro Even if investors continue to raise their near-term expectations for the ECB deposit rate, we doubt this will push up long-dated euro-zone yields or help the euro recover against the US dollar. 31st August 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB as hawkish as Fed at Jackson Hole While attention has understandably focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech made last Friday, there were also important interventions over the weekend by ECB policymakers. These... 29th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s gas crisis The surge in natural gas prices is a key reason why we expect Italy to fall into recession soon. If Russia stopped exporting gas to Europe entirely, Italy would suffer more than most but less than... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: The property cycle turns The Nordic and Swiss economies performed relatively well in Q2, while prime rents showed further rises in Scandinavian office and industrial markets. However, the economic outlook has darkened, which... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update German-Swiss bond yield spread may widen further We expect the spread between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to widen further over the remainder of this year. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Sky-high gas prices here to stay, with risks to the upside We have revised up our forecasts of the European natural gas price due to the scale of Russia’s supply cuts and the likelihood that these are permanent. Prices should ease back in 2023 as Europe... 24th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD parity may become par for the course With the key EUR/USD rate again trading below the symbolic parity level, we think it looks increasingly probable that the euro-zone’s worsening economic woes will lead to a prolonged period of euro... 23rd August 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Strong rental rises, but jump in yields weighs on values While quarterly rental rises surprised on the upside in Q2, property yields also rose sooner than expected. This meant all-property capital values barely grew on the quarter and slowed to around 5% y... 22nd August 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of dividend futures and the outlook for equities Dividend futures prices suggest to us there may be more downside for global equity prices. 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q2 2022) The stronger-than-expected 6.8% q/q annualised expansion in Israel GDP in Q2 confirms that the Q1 contraction was just a blip. Economic activity remains strong and alongside the red-hot inflation... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Build to Rent will continue to thrive The latest figures suggest that Build to Rent (BTR) investment has continued to expand rapidly. Despite this trend, which predates COVID-19, the sector remains under-developed by international... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin office rebound to run out of steam Rents in the Dublin prime office market rose rapidly in H1 2022, supported by a continued recovery in occupier demand. However, a cooling jobs market and strong supply pipeline mean that a slowdown is... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Prices to fall and activity to slump Tight supply has supported house prices so far, but they now appear to be stalling. Demand will only deteriorate further over the coming quarters as rising mortgage rates, high inflation, and the... 12th August 2022 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy crisis hotting up The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal... 12th August 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Global trends point to a more difficult decade ahead Commercial property wasn’t initially hit by the worsening in economic conditions at the turn of the year, but there are now growing signs of anxiety. Not only that, but even if the economic gloom is... 12th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations worsen further, but may be bottoming out Commercial property valuations worsened for the sixth quarter in a row in Q2, and for all-property is now the most overvalued since late 2007. But since the end of June gilt yields have edged back and... 11th August 2022 · 6 mins read
