Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s trade surplus soars as imports collapse Russia has suspended the publication of monthly trade data, but figures from its trading partners show that import values plunged 45% m/m in March while exports rose slightly amid high commodity... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian capital values to take a hit Italian prime property values continued to make solid gains in Q1. However, with the economic outlook downgraded and larger increases in property yields expected over the next couple of years, capital... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weaker economy yet to dent price expectations The weaker economic outlook triggered by the surge in CPI inflation to a 30-year high of 7.0% in March has yet to put a dent in businesses own expectations for their selling prices. The Bank of... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations worsen to post-GFC low Commercial property valuations worsened further in Q1 and now look overvalued. The spread between property and gilt yields narrowed to its lowest level post-GFC, but still has some distance to fall to... 10th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising inflation expectations causing alarm Policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, with professional forecasters, financial investors, consumers and firms all anticipating that the pace of price... 10th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May) The small rise in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment in May left it still very low. And the current conditions index fell further, which is consistent with our view that the economy will... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE industry showing no signs of weakness…yet Industrial production in Central Europe performed much better than expected in March given the sharp fall in German production. We still think industry will weaken in Q2 as supply chain disruptions... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected increase in core inflation in April raises the chances that the Norges Bank will step up the pace of tightening at its next rate decision, in June. Markets Drop-In (11 th... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the ruble now too strong? EU oil embargo gets close The Russian ruble continued its remarkable rally this week, rising to a two-year high of 66/$ but we think it may now be too strong and that the Russian authorities will soon ease some restrictions on... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics EUR/USD: The case for parity We think the euro will eventually weaken further, falling to parity against the US dollar, as the euro-zone economy falters, the terms of trade shock from higher energy prices feeds through, and the... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weakening economy won’t do the MPC’s job The Bank of England’s prediction that the economy is on the brink of recession grabbed the headlines this week, but we suspect its GDP forecast will prove too downbeat. That’s not to say the risk of... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Schlegel gets a pay rise; new split at the Riksbank The fact that the successor to Fritz Zurbrügg as Vice-Chair of the SNB’s Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, is an SNB stalwart means the looming changes at the top are unlikely to change the decision... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weakness of activity won’t deter the ECB A rate hike by the ECB in July, or possibly even in June, looks increasingly likely. But policymakers seem to be in no hurry to announce a new tool to keep sovereign bond spreads contained. Meanwhile... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Apr.) The construction PMI for April showed that building activity remained solid, but that the pace of growth has slowed. An easing in new orders growth also hints at a further slowdown ahead, as the... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
