Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Monarchical achievements & “killer apps” Real per capita incomes in the UK have risen by 1.9% on average each year since Elizabeth II came to the throne in 1952. But the monarchical bragging rights go to Harald V in Norway, under whom GDP... 1st June 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Apr.) The euro-zone unemployment rate remained at a record low in April and the latest business surveys suggest that employment will continue to increase at a decent pace. With the labour market remaining... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Manufacturing PMIs for May showed that weaker external demand weighed on export orders in Emerging Europe, and that spillovers from the war in Ukraine hit output. There were some signs of improvement... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May) There was another slowdown in the annual rate of house price inflation in May according to the Nationwide. That was in line with our expectation of sustained slowdown through the rest of the year... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities West’s detachment from Russian energy gathers pace The EU’s sixth round of sanctions on Russia marks yet another defining moment in the West’s detachment from Russia’s energy trade. The sanctions were widely telegraphed in advance, though, so for now... 31st May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but weakness on the horizon GDP across Central Europe expanded strongly in Q1 and the latest figures for March and April suggest that activity has remained resilient since the war in Ukraine started. Russia’s economy has not... 31st May 2022 · 14 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rent growth to slow, but quality gap could arise Both our view and that of the IPF Consensus is that prime office rental growth will slow as hybrid working shifts take their toll. However, we also think it is likely that a quality gap will emerge... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Apr.) The solid rise in unsecured borrowing in April suggests that households have turned to credit to support their spending as the cost of living squeeze has intensified. But consumers do not yet appear... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) Net lending to property rose sharply in April, after three consecutive months of easing. But the latest jump is most likely a once-off as we expect that credit demand will be dented by rising interest... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (May.) The drop in mortgage approvals in April provided early evidence that interest rate increases are starting to hurt activity. As we expect the rises in both policy and mortgage rates to continue apace... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) With headline and core inflation rising more than expected yet again, the case for exiting from negative interest rates promptly is now irrefutable. The ECB looks sure to confirm next week that it... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP in Q1 provides a solid base for year-on-year growth rates throughout 2022. But with surveys heading south, and signs of stagnation in the euro-zone in... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2022) Turkey’s economy performed better than expected in Q1, with GDP rising by 1.2% q/q, as the boost to net trade from the lira’s collapse late last year more than offset the blow to household spending... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany and Spain Flash Inflation (May) German and Spanish inflation data for May provide more ammunition for those who will argue at next week’s monetary policy meeting that the ECB should exit negative interest rates promptly, rather than... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were a mixed bag in May, but there were some encouraging signs that industrial sentiment has started to improve and that price... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (May) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for May was almost unchanged from April, well below its pre-Ukraine war level and consistent with economic activity stagnating in Q2. The survey also suggests that... 30th May 2022 · 2 mins read
