Africa Economics Update Ghana on track to outperform Increased oil and gas production should mean that Ghana outperforms the rest of the region and grows by 8-10% over the next couple of years. But beyond this, the key will be to ensure that energy... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Remittances to emerging markets to remain resilient Despite our forecast that global growth will continue to disappoint over the next couple of years, we expect remittances to most emerging markets will remain resilient. This will help drive growth in... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African bond markets shrug off deficit revisions The South African Finance Ministry today nudged up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit over the next three years, but we suspect that the budget shortfall may still surprise on the upside. The good... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set to edge up There are tentative signs that the slowdown in Emerging Market (EM) inflation seen over the past year has bottomed out. We expect EM inflation to quicken over the next six months, mainly due to faster... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflationary pressures easing in the Gulf Recent activity data provide further evidence that the Gulf economies are slowing. The good news is that inflationary pressures are easing at the same time. This will boost households’ real incomes... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut in November now looks off the cards South African inflation surprised to the upside in September, and we think it is likely to accelerate further to peak at around 6% y/y in early 2013. As such, we now think the Reserve Bank will keep... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s current account deficit remains its Achilles’ heel Kenya’s large current account deficit leaves it exposed to a sudden deterioration in the external funding environment, and is one reason to expect a slowdown in the monetary easing cycle in the coming... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Currency concerns keep Egyptian rates on hold Egypt’s central bank kept interest rates on hold today as concerns over the fragile external funding position continue to outweigh the need to stimulate an ailing economy. 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan SWF is a (small) step in the right direction On the face of it, yesterday’s announcement from Angolan President José dos Santos that the country has launched a sovereign wealth fund is a positive step towards better management of oil revenues... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growth subdued, but stabilising Emerging market GDP appears to have grown by around 4.5% y/y in Q3 – broadly the same rate as in Q2, but well down on the 8% y/y growth rates seen in 2010. At a regional level, Emerging Asia has... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Solid growth amid global weakness Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is not completely immune to the continuing crisis in the euro-zone and the effects of weakening growth elsewhere in the developed world, but strong domestic demand and scope... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will higher food prices drive up EM inflation? Headline inflation is set to pick up across most of the emerging world over the next six months, in the wake of global food price increases earlier this year. However, the impact should be short-lived... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fall in commodity prices will bring some relief to Morocco Morocco’s current account deficit has been pushed up to a 27-year high by a combination of weaker export demand from the euro-zone and the higher cost of commodity imports. Nonetheless, an IMF funding... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fall in commodity prices will bring some relief to Morocco Morocco’s current account deficit has been pushed up to a 27-year high by a combination of weaker export demand from the euro-zone and the higher cost of commodity imports. Nonetheless, an IMF funding... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African eurobonds: who is next in line? Sub-Saharan African (SSA) eurobond markets hit the headlines in September when Zambia’s debut $750mn 10yr bond issue, which was 15 times oversubscribed, became the most successful ever in the region... 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Emerging market exporters face more tough times ahead Emerging market exports have been hit by a broad slowdown in global demand this year, with the last few months proving especially weak. Given the bleak outlook for the global economy, a meaningful... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
