Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s PMI data for the Gulf provide further evidence that higher oil prices and recent fiscal measures are supporting robust growth in the non-oil sector. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey suggests... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth plateaued in Q2, but pick-up now underway Our GDP Tracker suggests that economic growth in Saudi Arabia plateaued in the first two months of Q2. But rising oil output is now providing a boost to the recovery and we expect that GDP growth will... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Saudi inflation fell to 2.1% y/y in June as the effects of last year’s “sin” taxes faded and housing inflation fell deeper into negative territory. But there are signs that broader price pressures are... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (June) We think that OPEC’s production is likely to rise significantly over the next couple of months. That said, it could fall back later in the year as output from Iran is curtailed and Venezuelan... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy lost momentum at the start of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed a touch in April, but we think that this will prove temporary. Growth is likely to pick-up sharply over the coming months as the Kingdom... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi emerges from recession, recovery to gather pace Saudi Arabia’s economy pulled out of recession in Q1 and we expect the recovery to gain momentum over the coming quarters, supported by fiscal stimulus and a jump in oil output. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation edged down for a fourth consecutive month to 2.3% y/y in May on the back of falling housing and utilities prices. Recent signs that growth in the non-oil economy is starting to... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt subsidy cuts, Saudi upgrade, OPEC meeting Hikes to fuel prices announced by the Egyptian government over the past week mean that the central bank will refrain lowering interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, growing tensions within... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would a rise in OPEC output mean for Saudi? The OPEC meeting scheduled to start on Friday will probably result in a compromise to increase oil output and this could provide a boost to Saudi GDP growth of around 1%-pt. Frictions within the group... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: will an MSCI upgrade drive the Tadawul higher? MSCI’s upcoming decision on whether to include Saudi Arabia in its benchmark emerging market equity indices has been billed as a game changer for the Kingdom’s stock market, but past experience... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy returned to growth in Q1 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy emerged from recession in Q1. More timely data indicate that a raft of public sector bonuses is finally providing some support to the non-oil sector. 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Higher spending causes Saudi budget deficit to widen Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened in Q1 compared with a year earlier as a raft of public sector bonuses more than offset the boost to revenues from the introduction of a new value-added tax. That... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy pulling out of recession The Saudi economy appears to have returned to positive growth in the first few months of this year as a fading drag from the oil sector has more than offset a modest slowdown in the rest of the... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi talk of $100pb oil doesn’t signal shift in oil policy The recent jump in oil prices to $75pb has been fuelled in part by reports that the Saudi authorities have expressed a desire for prices of $100pb. But we don’t think a fundamental shift in Saudi oil... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Saudi inflation edged down to 2.8% y/y last month, although it was still much higher than the rates recorded last year due to the impact of tax hikes and subsidy cuts. The early evidence suggests that... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A sluggish recovery The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa should continue over the coming months but growth is likely to be weaker than most anticipate. The rebound is being led by the Gulf as the drag from... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
