Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Worst fears over Qatar crisis fade Diplomatic efforts have failed to bring an end to the stand-off between Qatar and the so-called Anti-Terror Quartet (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain). Encouragingly, though, there are signs that... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Four key risks facing the oil market The oil market’s attention is firmly on rising production in the US and the outlook for stocks there. However, there are a number of risks elsewhere which are potentially being overlooked and which... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Saudi inflation remained in negative territory last month, although the introduction of new “sin” taxes on sugary drinks and tobacco caused the rate of decline ease. And there are reasons to think... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What explains the continued slide in Saudi Arabia’s FX reserves? Saudi Arabia’s official foreign exchange reserves have continued to decline sharply, despite the marked improvement in the current account position over the past year or so. This has raised concerns... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are we witnessing the end of the GCC? A threat by regional powers to expel Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has sparked fears that the group could be disbanded. A complete breakup of the GCC seems highly unlikely but, even if... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional slowdown approaching a trough The slowdown in the Middle East and North Africa should bottom out in the second half of this year and growth is likely to strengthen in 2018-19. In the Gulf, the hit to headline GDP growth from OPEC... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) June’s PMI data suggest that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy has lost a bit of steam, but this probably partly reflected a deterioration in sentiment on back of last month’s dip in oil prices. The... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Politics rocks the Gulf Political developments have dominated the news in the MENA region this month. In Qatar, financial markets have sold off amid a diplomatic spat with regional powers. So far, though, the broader... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1) Saudi Arabia’s economy recorded its first outright contraction since the global financial crisis in Q1, driven by the impact of oil production cuts. The contraction is likely to deepen over the rest... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Vision 2030 likely to fall short of lofty goals The recent elevation of Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman to crown prince has raised hopes of a renewed impetus to push through his Vision 2030 reform programme. But, while the scope of the programme... 27th June 2017 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi markets rally as MSCI points to EM upgrade Saudi Arabia’s equity market has rallied on the back of MSCI’s decision to put the country on its “watch list” for an upgrade to Emerging Market status, but there are a few reasons to think that the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi reshuffle clarifies succession, but hurdles to reform remain The decision by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman to promote his son, Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), to crown prince provides some clarity on the line of succession. That being said, many of the barriers to the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation stood in negative territory for a fifth consecutive month in May, but with subsidy cuts in the pipeline outright deflation is unlikely to last much longer. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts cause Saudi economy to stagnate Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy stagnated in March as oil production cuts continued to trim headline growth. Encouragingly, though, the non-oil economy strengthened further and... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC deal should allow Gulf to ease austerity further OPEC’s decision to rollover its oil output cuts didn’t come as a surprise, but the fact that calls for deeper cuts never even made it on to the table suggests that the Gulf economies are resistant to... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
