UK Economic Outlook Near-term momentum to fade as the year progresses (Q1 10) Consumer spending could continue to strengthen in the next few months. But this should be short-lived. We still anticipate several years of consumer weakness. 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (1st Est. Jan.) January’s fall in German consumer price inflation confirmed that households’ real incomes are being squeezed by much less than those elsewhere by rising prices. And inflation looks set to remain very... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How quickly will world trade recover? Today’s CPB Trade Monitor shows that the recovery in global trade continued at a rapid pace in November. Strong near-term GDP gains should continue to support trade, but as the world economy slows... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS survey upbeat on investment market, but not on rental values The RICS Global Commercial Property Survey released today confirmed that investment market activity in Western Europe rose in 2009Q4. It also indicated that the investment market recovery will be... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Surveyors may be too pessimistic about retail occupier prospects Surveyors’ responses to last week’s RICS Commercial Property survey painted a downbeat picture of the prospects for the retail occupier market, which seems consistent with the weaker tone of today’s... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s Budget won’t dispel market worries The markets and credit rating agencies had been looking to yesterday’s budget for confirmation that the Portuguese Government is prepared to follow other fiscally strained euro-zone economies in... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian sell-off serves as a timely reminder The sell-off in Russian markets over the past week or so has served as a timely reminder that they are the most vulnerable in the region to shifts in global risk appetite. We expect both the ruble and... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the UK catch up in the global recovery? The meagre 0.1% rise in GDP in Q4 showed that the UK is still lagging behind in the global recovery stakes. We think that the UK will fall even further behind over the next year or two. But further... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets misjudge the interest rate outlook (Jan 10) Markets continue to expect official interest rates in the UK to be raised from around the middle of 2010. No doubt the recent pick-up in inflation – as well as speculation that the Bank’s programme of... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook A second leg to the house price correction still lies ahead (Q1 2010) Our forecast that house prices will drop by 10% this year is unchanged. But, in view of the market’s surprising recovery last year, there is clearly risk that the current upward momentum in house... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ sits tight as S&P issues credit warning The Bank of Japan failed to make any new policy announcements today, disappointing some in the markets (ourselves included) who had hoped for at least a hint of further easing. However, the warning... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia set to stay in the slow lane Bank Negara (BNM) left policy rates unchanged today at 2.00%, as expected. There were no surprises in the policy statement which pointed to rates remaining on hold for a while. Malaysia’s recovery is... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
