UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 2009) 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Fiscal worries cloud the outlook (Q1 2010) Europe’s economies have continued to benefit from the improvement in the global environment, but there are still major uncertainties over the likely strength and sustainability of the upturn in the... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s small fall in the euro-zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) supports the message from Tuesday’s ZEW survey that the recovery might be losing momentum. 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook A "feel bad" recovery (Q1 10) The recession has ended in most countries in the narrow sense that GDP is picking up again. But this is still a “feel bad” recovery, where consumers are unwilling to contribute as much as they would... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong data strengthen case for early rate hike China’s attempt to crack down on speculative activity in its property markets does not signal that a property bubble is either inflating or about to burst. The new measures should help to tame price... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary policy after the election While analysis of the influence of the general election on economic policy has focused on the size and timing of the fiscal tightening, the conduct of monetary policy could also be affected. But... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can euro-zone accession rescue Emerging Europe? As Eastern Europe limps out of recession, enthusiasm for euro accession appears to be building. In a speech yesterday, Hungarian PM Gordon Bajnai said that his country should adopt the euro ‘as soon... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Jan.) & Labour market (Nov./Dec.) The minutes of January’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggested that the Committee is unlikely to change policy either way next month. Meanwhile, the mixed labour market data highlighted... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Affordability – why the different messages? According to the CML, aside from a brief period in 1996, mortgage affordability is the best on record. By contrast, our own measure of affordability is only in line with its long-run average and is no... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Modest monetary tightening to begin in Q2 The recovery in Latin America is building momentum and all inflation-targeting economies in the region will post strong annual growth rates in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, there is a good... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jan.) January’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment confirmed that confidence in the recovery remains fragile. We still see the German economy expanding by a pretty healthy 2.0% this year, but the... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sound as a pound? Sterling has had a rollercoaster ride over the past twelve months. This time last year it was at a multidecade low on a real trade-weighted basis. But the pound’s fortunes have improved since then and... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Croatia’s recovery set to disappoint The worst of the downturn in Croatia may have passed but the economy is still facing an uphill struggle. We expect GDP to grow by just 0.5% this year and by 2.0% in 2011, compared to average annual... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
