Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have further to run The tightening cycles that began in Ghana and South Africa earlier this year continued in July and, in both cases, we think that further interest rate hikes are likely before the end of 2014. Ghana’s... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African inflation to remain above target until 2015 South African inflation remained stable in June, but is probably set to rise in the near term, and is unlikely to fall back within the SARB’s target range until early 2015. This should be enough to... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African tightening cycle to remain gradual Having raised interest rates by 25bp today on account of rising inflation, it is clear that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is in the midst of a gradual tightening cycle. Further rate hikes are... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Four questions about the BRICS Bank and swap deal After years of discussion, the five BRICS nations yesterday agreed to establish a development bank and a framework of currency swaps, dubbed the “Contingency Reserve Arrangement” (CRA). In this Update... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: solid but unspectacular outlook for retailers Amid the recent sharp contractions in output from South Africa’s manufacturing and mining sectors, the better-than-expected performance from the retail sector comes as welcome news. But given that... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Zambia turns to the IMF – could Ghana follow suit? As the tailwinds from the past decade’s commodity boom fade, several economies in Africa are losing their shine. Zambia remains the focus of attention – faced with widening twin budget and current... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in S. Africa’s current account deficit not as good as it looks The narrowing in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q1 is welcome insofar as it has been one of the country’s key vulnerabilities over the past couple of years. But the narrowing was due to a... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Concerns over policy credibility emerge in Nigeria Concerns over policy credibility in Nigeria have surfaced over the past month. The Central Bank’s (CBN’s) new governor Godwin Emefiele recently hinted at moves towards looser monetary policy, despite... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Growing pains Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is likely to remain one of the world’s best performing regions over the next couple of years but, in a number of countries, growing pains are starting to emerge. Budget and... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Ghana and Zambia still in the firing line In line with the general rally in EM financial markets over the past couple of months, the South African rand has posted significant gains against the US$ of late. But the rally has not spread to a... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African GDP contracts in Q1, rapid rebound unlikely The South African economy contracted for the first time since 2009 in Q1 as the ongoing strike action in the mining sector proved to be more damaging than most had expected. Looking ahead, there are a... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Another leg down for currencies Most currencies in Africa have posted substantial losses against the US dollar over the past month, with the Ghanaian cedi and Zambian kwacha slumping to record lows. What’s more, there are a number... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds rates steady, but door still open for future hikes The recent strength of the rand allowed the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep interest rates on hold today. But given that South Africa is still among the most vulnerable EMs to a slowdown in... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Long-run prospects remain upbeat despite growing political concerns The apparent re-emergence of political risk in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the past couple of months has led some commentators to question the region’s longer-term growth... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests sharp slowdown in Q1 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the South African economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly five years in Q1, with annualised GDP growth slumping to around 0.2% q/q from 3.8% q/q in Q4. 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus What another five years of ANC rule means for South Africa Victory for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa’s general election last week was largely expected and, as such, financial markets have taken the result in their stride. However... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
