Africa Economics Update South Africa edges closer to rate hike The decision by South Africa’s MPC to hold the repo rate at 5.75% was accompanied by a statement that clearly paved the way for rate hikes over the coming months. We have pencilled in a 25bp rate hike... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Retail figures point to weak first quarter for South Africa Figures released today showed that South Africa’s retail sector faltered in March, supporting our view that GDP growth in the first quarter was a disappointing 2.0% in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in South Africa rose to 4.5% in April, and we expect that it will continue to rise over the coming months. Accelerating inflation will put pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: poor corn harvest poses little inflation risk 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to benefit from approaching “strike season” There is a renewed risk of strike action at South Africa’s platinum mines as companies are forced to restructure, leading to job cuts. We believe that the platinum market is already quite tight after... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Mar.) The surprisingly rapid expansion of South Africa’s manufacturing output by 3.8% y/y in March is unlikely to signal a significant turnaround for the embattled sector. We expect that labour disputes and... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Increased financial inclusion will support growth in Africa New figures from the World Bank confirm that Sub-Saharan Africa’s nascent banking sector is developing along a trajectory not seen in other emerging markets. The rapid expansion of a more inclusive... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South African inflation picked up slightly in March, to 4.0%, but we expect that a combination of energy prices hikes and a weak rand will increase inflationary pressures going forward. Headline... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African retail sales a positive surprise, but outlook still grim February’s strong South African retail sales data suggest that the economy’s Q1 slowdown was less severe than we had feared. But even so, we expect that weakness in the mining and manufacturing... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African banks’ rising external debt slips under radar The publication of South African Q4 balance of payments data last month grabbed the headlines because of the sharp reduction in the current account deficit, but the worrying rise in banks’ external... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Last month’s South African manufacturing PMI provides further evidence that the rebound in growth seen at the end of 2014 was temporary and that the economy struggled once again in the first quarter... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets unfazed by Nigeria election so far The surprisingly smooth organisation of Nigeria’s 28 th March election has had little effect on the country’s financial markets so far. A violent crisis remains possible, however, if the losing... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kganyago paves way for South Africa rate hike Policymakers in South Africa kept interest rates on hold today, but the governor’s statement took a notably more hawkish tone that seemingly paved the way for rate hikes at the next meeting in May. It... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigerian politics take centre stage All eyes are focused on Nigeria’s election on 28th March, which will almost certainly spark a brief period of political violence when (as seems likely) the losing candidate refuses to accept the... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker points to slowdown at start of year Attention in South Africa has been focused on the impact of US monetary policy, but evidence that the economy has slowed sharply seems to have slipped under the radar. Our GDP Tracker suggests that... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead A confluence of domestic and external factors will cut Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth in 2015 to its slowest rate this century. Low commodity prices will reduce export earnings and force fiscal... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
