Africa Economics Weekly Inflation shocks, Ghana growth The surprise rises in inflation in March in Sub-Saharan Africa's two biggest economies are likely to put pressure on policymakers in Nigeria and South Africa to raise interest rates further. Elsewhere... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Activity in Nigeria slumped in Q1 Data suggest that Nigeria’s key oil sector perked up in early-2023, but this was more than offset by weakness in the non-oil economy on the back of bungled demonetisation efforts. And we expect... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Monetary policymakers in hawkish mode, debt in focus Central banks in South Africa, Kenya and Ghana all stepped up the pace of monetary tightening this week as concerns about inflation and currency weakness flared up. But we doubt that the rule of... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Central banks focus on inflation and currency risks Nigeria’s central bank shrugged off the recent banking sector turmoil and kept its eye firmly focussed on tackling inflation as it hiked interest rates this week and, on balance, we think that... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Financial markets bruised, central banks hawkish Financial markets across Sub-Saharan Africa have struggled – and have underperformed their EM peers – since the global banking sector turmoil erupted. Amid broad risk-off sentiment, African sovereign... 23rd March 2023 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN teeing up end of tightening cycle The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the benchmark rate by 50bp, to 18.00%, and appeared to lay the groundwork to draw the tightening cycle to a close. 21st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ripples of global banking turmoil in Sub-Saharan Africa Strains in the global banking system have roiled financial markets, but in Sub-Saharan Africa the main impact of the turmoil is likely to feed through via lower commodity prices and tighter external... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jan.) & Nigeria CPI (Feb.) January’s hard activity figures out of South Africa came in stronger than expected, reducing the chances of a technical recession. But momentum remains extremely weak. Elsewhere, the rise in inflation... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: cabinet shuffled, economy shaken This week’s cabinet reshuffle in South Africa is unlikely to be a magic bullet to fix the country’s deepening energy crisis. We think that further pain lies in store for the broader economy, as well... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s elections: no U-turn away from “Buharinomics” Hopes that Nigeria’s elections would usher in a markedly more business-friendly administration were dashed after the ruling party’s Bola Tinubu was declared president-elect. Economic policy under a... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What you need to know about Nigeria’s elections In the final stretch before Nigeria’s elections on Saturday, we answer key questions about the polls and the economic consequences of the vote. 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Energy Update We are sceptical of Nigeria’s oil production promises We don’t think that the election in Nigeria on Saturday will lead to a sudden improvement in crude oil production. The oil industry’s challenges in the country are too deep-seated. But the long... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s economy recorded a surprisingly large pick-up in GDP growth, to 3.5% y/y, in Q4 but recent disruptions caused by the demonetisation process are likely to have dampened growth at the start of... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA budget preview, final stretch ahead of Nigeria’s polls South Africa’s mounting economic and political challenges, including the deepening energy crisis, set the stage for the fiscal scales to tip towards providing more support and away from fiscal... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Event Africa Drop-In: Nigeria’s crunch presidential election 1677160800 Nigerians go to the polls on 25th February for general elections which could put the country on a very different path.
Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Nigeria’s public finances No matter who wins the race to be Nigeria’s next president, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to remain on an upwards path in the near-term. But victory for an opposition candidate could make the... 15th February 2023 · 6 mins read
