Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s reform progress: a stock take Policymakers in Nigeria are taking steps in the right direction with recent market-friendly reforms, from liberalizing petrol prices to moves towards exchange rate unification. But the government hasn... 7th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN: economic weakness reigns supreme Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to lower the benchmark rate, from 12.50% to 11.50%, shows that policymakers have put aside their concerns about inflation and are increasingly... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) OPEC’s oil production rose sharply in August on the back of higher output quotas. However, if concerns persist about global oil demand, which was discussed at length at yesterday’s JMMC meeting, then... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Aug.) The increase in Nigerian inflation in August, to 13.2% y/y, will probably stay the hand of policymakers at next week’s MPC meeting. But, with a weak economic recovery, there may still be scope for an... 15th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q2 2020) Nigeria’s GDP nose-dived in Q2 and we think the recovery will be held back by continuing oil production cuts, losses in employment and income and limited fiscal stimulus. 24th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s monetary easing on pause… for now Following today’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, we think that Nigerian policymakers will cut interest rates once more this year as inflation stabilises and the economic recovery proves... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would financial repression look like in EMs? Several EMs in Latin America, as well as South Africa, Nigeria, India and Turkey could use financial repression policies to deal with the legacy of higher public debt burdens resulting from the... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) The slight increase in Nigerian inflation in May, to 12.4% y/y, will probably be followed by further rises over the coming months, but we still think that more interest rate cuts lie in store later... 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian monetary easing: better late than never We think that today’s 100bp interest rate cut by the Nigerian central bank, to 12.50%, will be followed by further loosening as economic recovery proves weaker than the central bank expects. We have... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: what next for the naira? We think that Nigerian policymakers will have to allow the naira to weaken further in order to address mounting strains in the balance of payments. But hopes of a unified, flexible exchange rate... 19th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s budget proposal, SA economy reawakening The amendments to the 2020 budget approved by Nigeria’s cabinet this week suggest that the government is not yet fully facing up to the fiscal damage caused by the coronavirus. Elsewhere, flickers of... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update A closer look at the vulnerabilities in Nigerian banks One consequence of the current crisis is that bad loans in Nigeria’s banking sector are likely to rise sharply. While the government would surely respond to problems at individual banks with capital... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil producers heading into deeper crises The plunge in global oil prices has raised the risk of much steeper contractions in output in African oil producers, sharper currency falls, sovereign debt restructurings and problems at local banks. 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar. 2020) The slight rise in Nigerian inflation in March, to 12.3% y/y, is unlikely to prevent policymakers from cutting their key rate in May to ease the country’s economic pain caused by the coronavirus. 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil shock forces CBN to accept inevitable The controlled devaluation of the naira will help to preserve Nigeria’s scarce FX reserves and encourage foreign investment inflows. Given, however, that officials opted to maintain a dual-track... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2019) Growth in Nigeria ticked up a notch in Q4, but there is still no sign of a broad-based economic recovery. We expect that the authorities will continue to enact unconventional stimulus policies later... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read